American presidential election | These groups which can swing the result

Who could determine the outcome of the vote? Republicans and Democrats alike have courted demographic groups through which they could obtain the keys to the White House. A look back at some highlights of the campaign, during which five electorates were targeted.


Posted at 1:28 a.m.

Updated at 6:00 a.m.

PHOTO ELIJAH NEWS, REUTERS ARCHIVES

Demonstration in favor of abortion rights in Atlanta, Georgia, on September 28.

Women

The question of reproductive rights is particularly mobilizing for the Democratic camp, and even more so to convince the female electorate – who already traditionally vote in greater numbers than the male electorate. An abortion referendum will be on the ballots in 10 states. “A vote for [Donald Trump] is a vote against us, against our health, against our worth,” former first lady Michelle Obama denounced in a speech in October on access to women’s health care. On the Republican side, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders instead questioned Kamala Harris’ “humility” because she never had a biological child. Will these speeches have an influence on women?

PHOTO HANNAH MCKAY, ARCHIVES REUTERS

A supporter of Donald Trump has the Republican candidate squarely in his skin. In New York, on October 27

The men

Will we witness a war of the sexes, with women supporting Democrats more, men choosing Republicans? Two visions of masculinity appeared to clash throughout the campaign. Among the Republicans, well-known male figures in different fields participated in Donald Trump’s rallies. Multi-billionaire Elon Musk, from the technology world, donated at least US75 million to a committee supporting the Republican. Former wrestler Hulk Hogan defended Donald Trump’s “strength”, criticizing the vice president for the number of migrants at the border and inflation. The Democrats, for their part, have bet on running mate Tim Walz, a father figure of the practical Midwest and former coach football.

PHOTO TANNEN MAURY, ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Students register to vote for early voting at the University of Wisconsin on October 22.

Young people

Some 8.3 million Americans turned 18 or 19 in 2024, and were eligible to vote for the first time in 2024, according to calculations by Tufts University. Will they go to the polls en masse? Young people traditionally vote less than their elders, for several reasons. Both campaigns attempted to court younger generation voters, particularly on economic issues. After the September 10 debate, singer Taylor Swift revealed her support for the Democratic candidate in a message to her 284 million subscribers on Instagram. The number of Internet users visiting the site to register for the elections jumped after its publication, but will this translate into formal votes?

PHOTO ASH PONDERS, ARCHIVES THE NEW YORK TIMES

In Phoenix, Arizona, the organization Poder Latinx is trying to encourage people of Hispanic or Latin American descent to register to vote in the presidential election. Last September 27

The Latinos

About 63.3 million people of Hispanic or Latino ancestry live in the United States. But they are far from forming a homogeneous group. And both campaigns tried to present themselves as the best choice for these people. Cuban Americans in Florida support Donald Trump at a rate of 68%, according to a poll released at the end of October by Florida International University. His warnings about Kamala Harris’ “communist” policies could also appeal to voters from certain South American regimes. But will voters from Puerto Rico be offended by comments from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who compared the place to a “floating island of trash” at a pro-Trump rally – to the point of costing votes to the party?

PHOTO EVELYN HOCKSTEIN, ARCHIVES REUTERS

Democratic supporters at a Kamala Harris campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on October 27. According to the Pew Research Center, 83% of African-Americans support the Democratic camp.

African Americans

According to the Pew Research Center, 83% of African-Americans support the Democratic camp. But the two campaigns noted a tendency, among some black men, to abandon the party of Kamala Harris in favor of Donald Trump in voting intentions. Former President Barack Obama addressed them directly in a speech in Pittsburgh in October, discussing their possible discomfort with voting for a woman for president. His speech did not arouse only enthusiasm: even on the Democratic side, members of the community denounced a simplification of the issues. Actor Wendell Pierce, known for his support of Democrats, denounced the speech on X, saying it made black men “scapegoats”.

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