Global warming is the “most likely” explanation for the torrential rains that fell last week in the United Arab Emirates and Oman, causing deaths and catastrophic flooding, says a group of scientists in a study published Thursday.
Precipitation during years marked by the El Niño phenomenon increased by 10 to 40% in these oil-producing Gulf countries, underlines the study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network, according to which “warming, caused by the combustion of fuels fossils”, is “the most probable explanation” for this phenomenon. There are no “other known explanations for the increased rainfall in the region,” the researchers say.
Nearly six months after COP28 agreement, countries continue to open new oil and gas fields
Even dry regions are affected
The storm which affected several countries in this desert region left 22 dead in Oman and four in the United Arab Emirates, where record rains caused major flooding.
This shows “that even dry regions can be heavily affected by precipitation, a threat that increases with global warming caused by fossil fuels,” emphasizes Sonia Seneviratne, professor at ETH University Zurich and member of the WWA.
This international group of scientists, which studies the role of climate change in extreme weather events, used historical data and climate models to study the evolution of precipitation in the region, including during El Niño episodes, a cyclical climatic phenomenon.
Before, the rains were less intense
The study highlights that extreme rainfall was less intense before the average temperature on the planet increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
“Extreme precipitation has become at least 10% more severe in the United Arab Emirates and Oman,” notes Mariam Zachariah, researcher at Imperial College London. Which is “in agreement with basic physics that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.”
Chaos in Dubai
On April 16, no less than 142 liters of rain per square meter were measured in Dubai.
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Torrential rains first fell on Oman last week, before reaching the Emirates, where the equivalent of almost two years of precipitation fell in one day on April 16, paralyzing part of the country.
In the ultra-modern city of Dubai, several residential areas and roads were flooded, while the airport, one of the busiest in the world, had to cancel more than 2,000 flights.
Increasingly violent floods
The United Arab Emirates, the world’s seventh largest crude oil producer, is investing heavily in renewable energy, while continuing to increase its oil and gas production capacity.
“At COP28, the world agreed to abandon fossil fuels. Almost six months later, countries continue to open new oil and gas fields,” lamented WWA climate scientist Friederike Otto.
“If the world continues to burn fossil fuels, precipitation in many parts of the world will become increasingly heavy, leading to deadlier and more destructive floods,” he warned.
(afp)
