The announcement on Wednesday by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of his possible resignation, after the opening of a judicial investigation against his wife, had the effect of a bombshell. Here are the possible scenarios for Spain.
Sánchez simply wants to cause an electric shock
Accustomed to public outbursts, the socialist put his resignation in the balance without informing his ministers. An unprecedented decision aimed at causing an electric shock and regaining the initiative in the face of the opposition, in a context of extreme polarization of political life.
In his letter, the socialist denounced “the seriousness of the attacks” against him and his wife, the result of a campaign of “harassment” carried out by the right and the extreme right who “do not accept the electoral results”. A campaign which would include the opening of the investigation into alleged acts of influence peddling and corruption against Begoña Gómez following a complaint from a far-right association.
“Sánchez is a political animal,” said Oriol Bartomeus, political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, and “he decided to go on the attack.” “He punches the table” as part of a “strategy aimed at putting the spotlight where he wants it,” adds Paloma Roman, political scientist at the Complutense University of Madrid.
A question of trust
The Prime Minister will announce his decision on Monday. One possibility is announcing a question of confidence to show Spain that it and its minority government are still supported.
The Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont, an ally of the government, has also called on the Prime Minister to favor this option which only requires the favorable votes of a relative majority of deputies. Since the letter was published, most of his allies have given him unconditional support.
Resignation with or without early elections
But the hypothesis of a resignation cannot be ruled out. “His close advisors and the leadership of the Socialist Party will try to convince him to stay” but his “decision” is “difficult to predict”, estimates Antonio Barroso, analyst from the Teneo cabinet.
If Sánchez resigns after six years in power, the Socialist Party could propose the nomination of another person. According to Paloma Roman, “the hyper personalization of power by Sánchez” however makes this hypothesis “difficult”.
Despite everything, the name that comes up is that of the number two in the government, Maria Jesus Montero, Minister of the Budget. But “it will be complicated for him to gather a majority” in the House, estimates Antonio Barroso, according to whom the Prime Minister could instead resign and call early elections in which he would stand again.
