the essential
For Bruno Cautres, CNRS researcher at CEVIPOF and teacher at Sciences Po, Marine Le Pen’s trip is aimed at the metropolis more than at the people of Mahor.
What will Marine Le Pen do in Mayotte?
We all remember the images of Emmanuel Macron screaming into a microphone, François Bayrou’s lightning visit or even Élisabeth Borne turning her back on two teachers… Marine Le Pen will undoubtedly want to send the message that she is really close to the people and that she will actually see the disaster. She will undoubtedly want to show that Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou have not taken the measure of the disaster. She will play the contrast effect with them
Marine Le Pen is already making significant scores in Mayotte, so she has little to gain electorally, what is the goal? Does it speak to the metropolis? And to say what?
The fact of going there itself positions it as the challenger of the macronie. She also wants to show that she has more of her feet on the ground and that she is better aware than the others of what is happening in Mayotte and subliminally in the entire country.
She will also want to show that in Mayotte, in terms of immigration, Gérald Darmanin’s policy has not borne fruit. Is it dangerous for the majority?
It’s complicated because this common base is in such an enigmatic relationship with public opinion that it is difficult to know what could put it in more difficulty than it already is. Above all, the French regard the executive and the government as people who have difficulty understanding why they are there. So I think that now the requirement for efficiency becomes terribly important for them.
Could Marine Le Pen be accused of exploiting a dramatic situation for electoral purposes?
It all depends on how she behaves. If I had been asked a question about the legitimacy of Élisabeth Borne’s trip to Mayotte, before the scene with the two teachers I would have said that the Minister of Education had her place there because one of the priorities is that children can return to school. Marine Le Pen has the advantage of coming after Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou and therefore of being able to adapt her communication. That should benefit him.
From this visit can we deduce anything about the mindset of the former RN boss towards the government and possible censorship?
I think that Marine Le Pen is like all the oppositions, she watches for big mistakes that the executive could make in order to be able to rush into them. This is democratic life, it does not indicate anything particularly significant from the point of view of the RN which will rather express itself about pensions and the budget. But perhaps, if Marine Le Pen returns from Mayotte saying: I went to the field and I think that the government underestimates the scale of what needs to be done, then that could become an argument. of weight for her in the budgetary battle.
François Bayrou has good relations with Marine Le Pen, this is much less true of Gérald Darmanin and Bruno Retailleau who tread on his toes. Could she want to put them in difficulty during her visit?
I think it targets the entire government because in Mayotte there are several themes: that of immigration but also that of economic underdevelopment and the health problem.
