Justin Trudeau kicked off 2025 by announcing on Monday that he was stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada, but not before the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC) was able to find a replacement. In the meantime, the elected representatives of the House of Commons will not return to Ottawa anytime soon, since Parliament is prorogued until March 24.
The major political crisis shaking Ottawa has got the better of the Prime Minister at a time when federal elections are looming and the transition of power in the United States is returning the keys to the White House to Donald Trump, determined to impose harmful tariffs for Canadian industry. What can we expect next?
Who must now face Donald Trump?
Monday’s announcement does not change anything about Canada’s current team of ministers, for the moment. Justin Trudeau remains the head of government of Canada for a time, and as such will still be responsible for relations with the United States at the time of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
“The government that was elected to protect Canadians and their interests in a very complex world, […] will continue this work with a focus and a singular emphasis on what is in the interests of Canadians,” assured Justin Trudeau on Monday.
The executive power will thus remain in place while the Liberal Party finds a new leader, who will also become the 24e Prime Minister of Canada and will remain so at least until the next general election. However, ministers will no longer be accountable to Parliament until it meets again on March 24, 2025.
When will the next Liberal leader and candidate be chosen?
Senior PLC officials will decide this week on the date of the members’ vote which will determine the identity of Justin Trudeau’s successor. The party’s internal rules only state that voting rules must be communicated to members 27 days in advance.
The PLC’s constitution provides strict rules for choosing a new leader, and Justin Trudeau chose to abide by them, announcing Monday that his replacement must be named “following a rigorous and competitive national process.” .
The race to succeed Mr. Trudeau will have to take place under extremely tight deadlines, as leadership races generally take several months. The Liberals will necessarily have to elect their next leader before March 24, the date of the return of elected officials to Ottawa for the opening of a new parliamentary session.
Who will choose the next leader?
Mr. Trudeau is not giving his caucus the opportunity to appoint an interim leader, which could have happened if he had decided to leave his post immediately.
It is the members of the Liberal Party who will be able to vote on the identity of their next leader, and thus the next prime minister. The leadership election will take place by secret ballot and follow a well-defined procedure, supervised by a specially formed committee.
Unlike other political parties, the Liberals give out their membership cards free of charge. “Any person can register as a registered liberal if they meet the requirements set by the National Council. There are no registration fees,” reads the party’s constitution.
The president of the PLC, Sachit Mehra, already announced on Monday “to begin the necessary steps” with a view to finding a successor to Mr. Trudeau. The party’s National Council, which he heads, is expected to communicate this week the terms of the upcoming race.
Who are Justin Trudeau’s potential successors?
Discussions about Mr. Trudeau’s possible successors had taken place behind the scenes well before the Prime Minister’s official announcement.
The name of former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has been circulating in Ottawa for several months now. In the days preceding Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, the banker had begun contacting Liberal MPs to prepare his candidacy for leadership, reported the Toronto Star.
Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who left the cabinet in December, is also emerging as a candidate of choice. Several polls give an advantage to Mme Freeland, his support ahead of that of Mark Carney and the many Liberal ministers considered as candidates.
Minister and longtime friend of Justin Trudeau Dominic LeBlanc is also among the potential contenders. L’Acadien succeeded Chrystia Freeland as Minister of Finance after her resignation last month.
The names of Justin Trudeau’s senior ministers Anita Anand (Transport) and Mélanie Joly (Foreign Affairs) are also often mentioned. Minister François-Philippe Champagne is “evaluating his options” and is not closing the door on applying, according to a person close to him.
Former Prime Minister of British Columbia Christy Clark (2011-2017), who is also rumored to be competing for the position, quickly praised the career of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in French on Monday, saying she was “impatient to join the tens of thousands of Canadians who will be called upon to choose our next leader.”
When will the next federal election take place?
The next federal election will take place this spring, if we are to believe the tone adopted by all the leaders of the opposition parties on Monday. As soon as elected officials return to the House of Commons on March 24, the government will have to deliver a Speech from the Throne.
The elected representatives of the opposition, the majority in Parliament, will have the opportunity to overthrow the government by means of a vote on this Speech from the Throne, which is also a vote of confidence. Six days of debates are planned, during which the government will not be able to pass anything else, unless it has the support of an opposition party.
New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh has categorically rejected the idea of working with a new Liberal leader, and he vows to vote with the Bloc Québécois and Conservative Party to call an election at the first opportunity. Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet said Monday that Canada was now immersed in “pre-election months.”
