Does the success of Jacques Audiard and “Emilia Pérez” at the Golden Globes herald a triumph at the Oscars?

CULTURE – Victory was announced, but it is no less delicious. The musical Emilia Perez left the 82nd Golden Globes ceremony crowned with glory. Nominated in ten categories, the film reigned supreme in four of them. To the point that some already imagine Jacques Audiard, Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, leaving again with their arms particularly full during the Oscars, at the beginning of March.

If the statuette for best actress in a comedy, “promised” to Karla Sofía Gascón, ultimately ended up in the arms of Demi Moore for The Substance, Jacques Audiard’s feature film, shot in Spanish, can boast four victories and not the least: best comedy or musical film, best foreign film, best actress in a supporting role in a comedy, and best original song. Enough to indicate a clear path, in the footsteps of The Artistat the Dolby Theater on March 3? The film directed by Jean Dujardin crowned his three Golden Globes with five Oscars in 2021.

No crystal “Golden Globe”

Be careful not to read too much into the golden “globes” as the “GG” have not always acted as an “oracle” in terms of price season. Last year, it was another French director, Justine Triet, who made a big splash at the Golden Globes with Anatomy of a fall (best screenplay and best foreign film), before leaving the Oscars with only one statuette (best screenplay).

A scenario that has been repeated many times over the years. In 2023, Everything Everywhere All at Once was a huge hit at the Oscars even though the film lost in many categories to the Banshees of India at the Golden Globes. Our colleagues from the specialized site Vulture had done the math in 2021, according to them, less than half (49.8%) of the winners at the Golden Globes subsequently won an Oscar. In 2022 the new version of West Side Story by Steven Spielberg had conquered the Golden Globes, but not the Oscars, dominated that year by Codathe adaptation of the French film The Aries family.

The explanation behind these sometimes very different rankings is simple: it is not the same people who vote. For the Golden Globes, there are around 300 specialized journalists from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association from all over the world. For the Oscars, they are professionals from the cinema industry. Each branch votes for its branch, at the start of the nominations (actors for actors, directors for directors, etc.). Then, each of the approximately 10,000 members of the Academy can then vote for their favorite in each category.

The spotlight before the Oscars

On the other hand, the Golden Globes offer a nice spotlight on films and artists at the most opportune time, since the Oscar nominations begin this Wednesday, January 8. Voters have until January 12 to nominate their favorites in each of the categories represented during the ceremony. The names of the nominees will then be announced on January 17. A victory at the Golden Globes, but also, an inspiring speech or a strong position can thus weigh in the balance when Oscar voters examine their possibilities.

Karla Sofía Gascón’s powerful words against transphobia, taking the stage alongside Jacques Audiard and the entire film team, could propel her to the top of the favorites for the Oscar for best actress. And this even though the Golden Globe in this category escaped him in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. The emotion of the latter after winning the first prize of her career on January 5, and her comments on self-acceptance, will also perhaps have left their mark. Thus also offering its director, Coralie Fargeat, exposure far from being superfluous in a competitive Hollywood.

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