The moment of truth has come for Justin Trudeau

(Ottawa) In the minds of a majority of Liberal MPs, the matter is practically settled. Justin Trudeau must announce Monday or Tuesday at the latest that he is ready to pass the torch. Because failing to announce his departure, he will have to face an unprecedented rebellion from his liberal caucus on Wednesday. By a large majority, his troops are now demanding that he bow out.

The die is cast. “ The gamble was thrown », would even say Julius Caesar. Trailing in the polls for more than a year, Justin Trudeau believed, barely a month ago, to be able to hang on to his post and lead the Liberal troops during the next elections, scheduled for no later than in october. But he no longer has any room for maneuver. The week ahead will therefore be decisive for him.

The special meeting of the Liberal caucus on Wednesday in Ottawa is the deadline to decide on its future.

“Logic dictates that this happens before the caucus. There is no scenario where he can survive this meeting. The choice is therefore simple: resignation before the caucus or a revolt on Wednesday morning which forces him to leave,” said a Liberal source who requested anonymity and who worked closely with Justin Trudeau for much of the last decade.

There is no formal mechanism available to the Liberal caucus to demand the leader’s resignation.

In the liberal ranks, however, it is difficult to see how he could remain in office if the majority of deputies take turns marching in front of the cameras to demand his departure.

“There’s almost no one left in caucus to support him. It’s over. A truly sad ending that could have been avoided,” lamented a reliable liberal source who requested anonymity in order to speak more freely.

Some influential liberals have already taken the next step: how to quickly choose a new leader.

“The debate is raging within the Liberal Party about the best formula to follow to choose a successor to Justin Trudeau when he announces his departure, as he will undoubtedly do in the coming hours or days,” Eddie Goldenberg, a former close collaborator of former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, was put forward on Sunday in a text published Sunday on the National Newswatch website.¹.

Mr. Goldenberg pleaded in this text for the Liberal caucus, and not all Liberal supporters, to elect the next leader before the end of January. Time is running out, he argued, for a new leader to be appointed.

The person chosen must have time to introduce themselves to Canadians and outline some ideas before the three opposition parties – the Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party – join forces to bring about the fall of the government minority and federal elections in March.

It appears that the seduction campaign that Justin Trudeau led to convince the former governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney to join the cabinet by taking control of the Ministry of Finance, in place of Chrystia Freeland, exploded on him in the face.

The goal of this maneuver was simple: to demonstrate that the Liberal Party of Canada, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, can still attract talented people, even after nine years in power, and give more energy to the government’s economic team while that deficits are accumulating, that the economy is showing signs of weakness and that President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of 25% on all products, upon his return to the White House on January 20 , weighs on Canada like a sword of Damocles.

Not only did Chrystia Freeland, to whom he wanted to entrust the file of Canadian-American relations without a real ministry, resoundingly resign on the very day she was to present the economic statement, but Mark Carney refused the offer and the strategy aborted gave new impetus to the dissident deputies who had vainly called for his departure in October.

Since the fateful date of December 16, 2024, the Prime Minister has remained silent. But nature abhors a vacuum, especially in politics.

In turn, the Ontario Liberal caucus and the Atlantic Liberal caucus met during the holiday break to demand his departure. The Quebec Liberal caucus arrived, by consensus, at the same conclusions. Liberal MPs who had remained discreet until now, including Winnipeg South Centre, Ben Carr, and London North Centre, Peter Fragiskatos, also openly called for his resignation.

Meanwhile, pretenders to the Liberal throne began to become active. This is the case of Chrystia Freeland, who has increased her calls to Liberal MPs since her resignation, an undeniable sign that she wants to enter the race for leadership of the PLC and that she anticipates the leader’s departure.

Ditto for Mark Carney, who also made good use of his phone in recent days, according to information reported by - and the daily Toronto Star. The former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England also received encouragement to run for the party leadership.

Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark is also taking steps to indicate her interest in taking control of the PLC.

The other candidates who aspire to succeed Justin Trudeau one day – the Minister of Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, the Minister of Transport, Anita Anand, and the new Minister of Finance, Dominic LeBlanc – were more discreet.

In short, the torture of gout is far from over for Justin Trudeau. And the fatal blow could be administered to him during the extraordinary meeting of the Liberal caucus on Wednesday if he seeks, against all odds, to remain in office.

1. Lisez l’article de National Newswatch « The Liberal Party Needs To Choose A New Leader Quickly » (en anglais)