Stay: January 2, 2025, 4:46 a.m.
Of : Dominique Jung
PresseDivide
In 48 hours, the CFS model radically changed its forecast. From a mild monthly forecast to a cooler and below normal January. What is behind the change?
Frankfurt – The weather world is upside down: In just two days, the CFS model, a renowned long-term forecasting instrument, corrected its monthly forecast for January 2025 by four degrees. According to qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung von plus humide.net This sudden change is unprecedented.
Sudden change in weather forecast: but not a mild January
The expert explains: “Normally, such models show slow development, but such a jump overnight is unusual. I’ve never seen anything like this before. The model expected a mild January on Saturday, December 28, one to two degrees above the long-term average. But suddenly the forecast is calling for cold temperatures with variations of up to minus two degrees.
What’s behind this? Experts are also perplexed about this. Jung suspects that the new medium-range forecast data detected sudden dynamics that adjusted the model. Particularly in the dynamics of the atmosphere, signs of significant changes that were not previously noticeable could appear. Such behavior indicates that something unusual might be imminent in the general weather situation.
wetter.net – the weather in brief!
This article was created as part of a content partnership with wetter.net. wetter.net gives you everything you need to know about weather and climate. On our pages you will find forecasts of cities and locations around the world for the next 14 days, with a time resolution of 1 hour for the first 7 days and a time resolution of 3 hours for the following days. Weather forecasts, precipitation radars, measured values, weather warnings, weather in Germany and weather news provide information on current developments as well as the coming hours and days.
Weather forecast for Germany: phenomenon or calculation error?
Meteorologists are debating whether this change is due to an impending winter event or a weakness in the model. According to Jung, the sudden cold spell in the model could indicate that colder air masses from the Arctic are on their way to central Europe. This weather constellation, combined with a strong polar vortex, could result in a frigid January.
In contrast, long-term models are known to be prone to fluctuations. The accuracy of these predictions is controversial in science. Nevertheless, the current development remains exciting because it shows how dynamic and unpredictable weather can be.
Weather 2025: a major winter event to come?
It is currently impossible to definitively answer the question of whether an extreme winter is imminent. The fact is, however, that the sudden tilt of the model indicates profound atmospheric changes. Expert Jung recommends monitoring the coming weeks closely. If these predictions come true, we could see one of the coldest Januarys in recent years.
For winter lovers, this means the hope of snow and freezing temperatures, while warm weather lovers should prepare for some uncomfortable times. They also arrive on New Year’s Eve: the expert expects a storm here. He also warned of a “poisonous cloud.”
