Will 2025, like 2024, 2023 and 2022, be one of the hottest years that France has recorded since measurements began? IF the effect of global warming makes this likely, it is obviously impossible to know from January 1st. On the other hand, we already know that the first months of the year will put 2024 on the trajectory allowing it to once again become a particularly hot year.
A quarter that promises to be hot
According to the three-month trends outlined by Météo France, “a milder scenario than normal is clearly” preferred in France for the months of January, February and March 2025. According to the forecasting organization, this scenario has in fact a 70% chance of occurring compared to 33% in a scenario where no particular clue concerning temperatures would be detected ( since Météo France distributes its chance percentages according to three scenarios: colder, warmer or consistent with normal)
As shown in the image below, constructed by compiling data from the main seasonal forecast models, a positive temperature anomaly (difference with normal) is actually expected across Europe for the period from January to March.
However, as Météo France points out, a quarter on average warmer than normal does not mean that it will not experience occasional cold episodes, depending on the atmospheric circulations observed at a given time. As Météo Villes points out, the The first days of January look set to be rather cold.
Towards a dry quarter in the south of France
As for precipitation, Météo France indicates that “Drier than normal conditions are likely over southern France and the Iberian Peninsula”. On the other hand, “no scenario is favored for the rest of France and most of Europe”, specifies the forecasting institute.
Weather Cities et The Weather Channel indicate for their part that the level of precipitation expected over the entire quarter should be in line with normal, even if February could be subject to a few more rainy spells than usual.
