1X2 prediction: which team to bet on?
Crystal Palace win the match
1. Crystal Palace showed a better performance at home compared to Southampton away. Over their last 5 respective matches, Crystal Palace have won 20% of matches and drawn 40% of the times. On the other hand, Southampton have not won once away from home, having drawn only 40% of the times.
2. Crystal Palace's offensive and defensive potential at home is significantly higher than that of Southampton away. Crystal Palace has an offensive potential of 64% and a defensive potential of 79%, while Southampton only has an offensive potential of 14% and a defensive potential of 93%.
3. The winning odds will suggest Crystal Palace as the likely winner of the match. With a winning probability of 63.49%, the chance of Crystal Palace winning the match is higher than the other available options (i.e. draw at 19.58% and Southampton winning the match at 16.93%).
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Over/Under 2.5: that even?
More than 2.5 goals in the match
1. Crystal Palace's home performance: Crystal Palace has scored 5 goals in 5 home games, an average of 1 goal per game, and also has an offensive potential of 64%. This demonstrates their goal scoring ability, contributing to the total goal of 2.5 goals.
2. Southampton's defensive weakness: Southampton have conceded 2.6 goals on average per game in their last 5 away games, they also have a defensive potential of 93%. Statistics indicate that Southampton are vulnerable and tend to concede a lot of away goals.
3. General Goal Statistics: The probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match is 55.56%, an interesting odds. This also shows that bookmakers predict a high probability of seeing more than 2.5 goals in the match.
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BTTS: Will both teams score?
Both teams score: No
1. Southampton have poor offensive performance away from home, averaging 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 away games, and an offensive potential of only 14%. The probability of Southampton scoring in this match is therefore relatively low.
2. At home, Crystal Palace has a strong defensive performance with a potential of 79%. He has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game over his last 5 games, but given Southampton's poor offensive performance, it is possible that Crystal Palace will not concede a goal in this match.
3. Analyzing Southampton's last 5 away matches, we see that this club failed to score in 3 of these matches. Coupled with Crystal Palace's strong defensive record at home, this strengthens the argument that it is likely that both teams fail to score in this match.
Which bet offers an attractive value bet?
Draw or Southampton win the match – 2.35
1. Crystal Palace tend to draw at home, with 40% draws in their last 5 matches, which favors the 'draw or Southampton win' option.
2. Southampton are very solid in away defense, allowing only two goals in their last five games, thus strengthening the opportunity for a draw or a win from them.
3. Although Southampton have not had an away win in their last 5 matches, they have managed to hold their opponents to a low scoreline with 40% draws, suggesting some ability to avoid the defeat.
Betting on the correct score
Crystal Palace 1-0 Southampton
1. Southampton's defensive potential: Statistics show that Southampton have high defensive potential when they play away, with an average of 2.6 goals conceded per match. They have only scored 1 away goal in their last 5 games, so a 1-0 score is likely.
2. Crystal Palace's Recent Home Performance: Crystal Palace have scored goals in 4 of their last 5 home games, indicating reasonable attacking potential. The fact that they managed to keep a clean sheet against Tottenham Hotspur, a usually strong team, suggests that their defense is strong enough to hold off Southampton.
3. Probability of victory according to the bookmakers: The odds also favor Crystal Palace to win the match with a probability of success of 63.49% according to the bookmakers. Additionally, there is a high probability of under 3.5 goals in the match, which suggests that if Crystal Palace win, it will be with a small score difference.
Analysis and key facts of the match
The shape of the teams
Crystal Palace are struggling at home, with a 20% win rate over the last 5 matches. A draw is also a common result with 40%. However, they score 1.8 goals on average and are subject to defensive underperformance with 2.2 goals conceded.
Southampton are struggling on the move. Their win rate is 0%, scoring just 0.4 goals and conceding 2.6 goals on average over the last 5 matches. Their offensive potential is only 14%, but they have a solid defense of 93%.
Statistically, Crystal Palace has a 63.49% probability of winning. A draw has a probability of 19.58% and a Southampton win seems unlikely, with only 16.93% probability.
Another interesting betting option is “draw or Crystal Palace win” with 83.07% probability. Conversely, the “draw or Southampton win” bet has only a 36.51% chance.
Regarding goals, there is a 77.8% chance that there will be “more than 1.5 goals” in the match. Another option is “less than 3.5 goals” with 73.54% probability.
Finally, both teams score has a 51.32% probability, while the option of both teams not scoring is slightly less likely at 48.68%.
In conclusion, Crystal Palace have a better chance, despite their defensive struggles. Southampton may struggle to score. The bet “Crystal Palace win or draw”, associated with “under 3.5 goals” seems to be a safe option.
The number of potential goals
Crystal Palace have an average home performance with 20% wins and 40% draws. They scored 5 goals and conceded as many.
Southampton are struggling away. They didn't win a single match. They scored once and conceded twice.
In terms of capabilities, Crystal Palace has an offensive potential of 64% at home. He concedes on average 2.2 goals per match.
Southampton defend well, with a defensive potential of 93%. However, they only score 0.4 goals per game.
The probability of Crystal Palace winning the match is 63.49%, with odds of 1.57. As for a draw, the probability is 19.58% and the odds are 4.20.
The match could have less than 3.5 goals, probability of 73.54%, with odds of 1.42.
The chance of both teams scoring is 51.32%, with odds of 1.78.
In summary, Crystal Palace has a better chance of winning, with a probability of less than 3.5 goals in the match.
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Our conclusions and prediction for this match
In conclusion, taking into account the performance of both teams, Crystal Palace seems to have the advantage, especially due to its superior performance at home and the higher offensive and defensive potential compared to Southampton, especially away. The stats indicate a significant probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, however, the probability of both teams scoring is unlikely, as the analysis shows.
Regarding value bets, although the probability of Crystal Palace winning is higher, the “draw or Southampton win” bet could offer an interesting value bet given Southampton's strong defense on the road and Crystal Palace's recent trends. to share points at home.
As for the exact score, considering Southampton's good defensive performance and Crystal Palace's recent offensive performance, a Crystal Palace 1-0 Southampton result can be a reasonable prediction.
Crystal Palace have a better chance despite their defensive struggles. Southampton may experience difficulties offensively. The bet “Crystal Palace win or draw”, combined with “under 3.5 goals” seems to be a wise choice for punters.
