The summer of 2023 was very hot in France. Several heat records were broken. For the summer that is coming, the forecasts are no better. In its trends for the coming months, Météo France is predicting a hotter than average summer this year in France.
Indeed, the meteorological organization reveals in its latest forecasts for the three summer months, published on Friday, June 28, that the summer is more likely to be warmer than the seasonal averages. Météo France also indicates that it will be drier in the south of France. It must be said that these are trends, not forecasts that guarantee that this scenario is 100% safe.
In this weather report concerning the weather trend for the next three months, namely the months of July, August and September, Météo France indicates that there is a 50% chance that it will be hotter than average. The opposite case is therefore also possible and has the same chance of occurring.
For this second scenario, two possibilities arise. 30% chance that the temperature will be average and 20% that it will be lower. Comparing these percentages, the hypothesis of a hot quarter next year is the most likely. Furthermore, as far as the south of France is concerned, the trend is clearer.
A drier summer in the south, according to Météo France
Indeed, Météo France indicates that the probability of a hot scenario for this region is 70%. The Météo France bulletin therefore reveals that the next three months have only a 20% chance of being within the seasonal averages and barely a 10% chance of being cooler in the south of France.
Regarding rainfall for the next three months, the Météo France bulletin is less clear. The only certainty from the meteorological agency is that it will be drier than average in the south. This part has a 25% chance of being watered normally and 25% of being watered more than usual. For the northern part, no trend stands out, according to Météo France. All scenarios therefore remain possible.
Note that according to the meteorological organization, “ this bulletin does not make it possible to predict the details of the weather conditions for the coming months day by day or even week by week. It only attempts to determine the expected trends on average over the quarter […] An event lasting between a few days and a few weeks can only be anticipated a few days in advance. ».
