Can Democrats reverse course? Joe Biden’s failed “performance” against Donald Trump on Thursday has fueled speculation that the 81-year-old president, who is running for re-election in November, could throw in the towel. This scenario, although unlikely for now, would plunge the United States into a period of great uncertainty before and after the 2024 US presidential election. We explain.
Confusion and repeated stammering on the air
Joe Biden, the oldest serving US president, missed a crucial opportunity to reassure millions of voters of his vitality and health during the first debate of the campaign. On stage, the Democratic leader often appeared confused, mincing his words and getting confused. Calls to step down from anonymous Democrats spread through the press as soon as the show ended.
Joe Biden has repeatedly said he is the best-qualified candidate, despite polls that show his age is turning off voters. At a rally in North Carolina on Friday, he repeated his expectation that he will “win” the November election. “I don’t debate as well as I used to,” he acknowledged, but “I can do this job.”
And if… ? “Any shot” was allowed
If Joe Biden were to throw in the towel, however, the process to replace him would be a bit technical. The president has already been named as the Democrats’ presidential candidate in a series of primaries, which were held from January to June. He must therefore, in theory, be inducted at the party convention in Chicago. If Joe Biden leaves the race before this big rally, scheduled for mid-August, the last word would go to the party delegates, 3,900 people with very varied profiles, and for the most part completely unknown to the general public.
This would then be “the kind of convention where anything goes,” with each side trying to push for its candidate, predicts Elaine Kamarck, a researcher at the Brookings Institute, in a recent note. A roughly comparable scenario presented itself for the Democrats on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson publicly announced that he would not seek a second term, in the midst of the Vietnam War. What if Joe Biden were to drop out between the convention and the election? It is then the “national committee” of the party which, in an extraordinary session, would nominate the candidate.
Who to replace Biden?
Joe Biden has already designated Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, but there is no rule that the running mate automatically replaces the incumbent candidate. Sent to put out the fire after the poor performance of the Democratic president, the fifty-year-old conceded that Joe Biden had been “slow to start” but that he had “finished strong”.
She has never mentioned the possibility of replacing him. Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African-American to serve as vice president, could also face competition from other members of the party’s young guard. Like California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is on the rise among Democrats. However, he said that this type of “conversation” was “not good for our democracy.” The names of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are also being repeatedly floated.
