Price modeling suggests a favorable outcome for onion consumers

Price modeling suggests a favorable outcome for onion consumers
Price modeling suggests a favorable outcome for onion consumers

Currently, onions sell for more than 92 rand (4.7 euros) per 10 kg in municipal markets and red onions almost double: R195 (10 euros) per 10 kg. In his weekly market analysis, agricultural economist Dr Johnny van der Merwe notes a very strong correlation between this season’s price developments and those of 2019, although prices are 46% higher this season.

Disruptions to electricity supplies and increased costs across the value chain have hit South Africa’s onion and potato yields hard, but if the analogy with 2019 holds, the Dr Van der Merwe says consumers can expect some relief over the coming months.

“Assuming we continue to follow the trend established in 2019, we can expect prices to remain at this high level for the next three weeks, before starting to decline. It is possible that prices will be slightly better in October, but the general trend should be downward from now on.”

Daily onion sales figures released by Potatoes South Africa show that less than 22% of available 7kg bags of onions were sold in markets yesterday at an average price of R70 (3.6 euros) per bag . The previous week, the supply had decreased by more than 100,000 bags (10 kg) and the price had increased slightly.

Tomato prices have fallen by 31% over the past week to an average of R7.16 per kilogram, while volumes have increased by 17%. “It is mainly a shortage on the demand side,” says a tomato trader. “The third week of June is always a difficult period. Next week, volumes are expected to decrease again, which will strengthen prices.

Potatoes have become more affordable and are now around 50 rand (2.6 euros) for 10 kg. Dr Van der Merwe uses historical trends to estimate that prices will remain at this level until the end of August, before peaking in October at around R90 (4.7 euros),

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