How not to disappear in 14 years seems to be the theme
Why is this important: At a conference in Washington, D.C. this week, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the Federal Emergency Management Agency conducted a frightening simulation: What if a massive asteroid headed toward Earth with more than ‘a decade’s notice? This exercise, held every two years, allows relevant agencies to develop response plans in the event of potentially catastrophic asteroid impacts.
This year’s fictional scenario involved a newly discovered asteroid with a 72% chance of crashing into Earth on July 12, 2038, a 14-year warning time. The details were obscure to give participants a real challenge, with many uncertainties surrounding the size, composition and precise trajectory of the rock.
“The uncertainties associated with the exercise’s initial conditions allowed participants to contemplate a particularly challenging set of circumstances,” said Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “A major asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster that humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent. »
During this multi-day theoretical exercise, nearly 100 participants from NASA, FEMA and, for the first time, international collaborators plotted potential response times for deflecting or disrupting the asteroid using kinetic impactors, ion beams and other techniques. They had to balance waiting for more data with the urgency to immediately begin costly space missions and other preparedness efforts like evacuation planning. Clear global cooperation through channels such as the UN Space Mission Planning and Advisory Group (SMPAG) and coordinated public messaging were also discussed, a presentation highlighted.
A rapid NASA report highlighted some key gaps: decision-making processes for approving and funding space missions are not yet defined, there are no effective regional and national response plans yet asteroid impact disasters, and mechanisms for timely international coordination on communications needs. more development. Concerns have also been raised about the risk of false information and disinformation being spread during such a high-profile event.
The exercise also incorporated new data from NASA’s DART mission, which successfully impacted the Dimorphos satellite last year to test a kinetic impactor deflection technique. But the report notes that while a promising method, kinetic impactors remain the only technically demonstrated approach in space so far for asteroid deflection.
Of course, major asteroid impacts on Earth are extremely rare events, even though NASA issues alerts about their fairly frequent passage beyond Earth. The last significant asteroid strike was the relatively small Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013, which caused localized damage at its entrance. And no known asteroids currently threaten Earth.
However, NASA believes that prevention is better than cure. The agency is currently developing the NEO Surveyor infrared space telescope to discover and study potentially dangerous near-Earth objects years before any risk of impact. Its launch is scheduled for June 2028.
