The latest voting intentions published, here is what our compiler reveals

POLITICS – At the casino, it seems ” place your bets, no more bets “. In politics, we meet on Sunday at 8 p.m. for the announcement of the results. The legislative election blitz ends this Friday, June 28 at 11:59 p.m. A few hours before the deadline, the polling institutes published their latest studies on voting intentions.

Le HuffPost added them to his compiler (visible below) which now offers a final snapshot of public opinion before voters enter the voting booth on Sunday.

First lesson: the National Rally has seen progress in the three weeks following the surprise dissolution announced by Emmanuel Macron. The far-right party that wants to bring Jordan Bardella into Matignon is credited with an average of 36.2%, which is double its score obtained in 2022 (18.7%) and even more than the 31.4% of the European elections.

The left settles down in the final straight

In second position, the left succeeded in a first bet: uniting in record time to avoid the scattering of European votes and succeed in qualifying for the second round. But after a positive dynamic in the first two weeks, voting intentions tended to stabilize in the final days of the campaign. With 28.1, the New Popular Front is credited with a better score than that obtained in 2022 (25.7%) but it remains below the left’s total in the European elections (31.5%).

Third, the presidential majority did not seem to weigh on this campaign, with voting intentions in its favor changing only very slightly. The candidates supported by Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal are credited with 20.3% on average. This is certainly better than Valérie Hayer’s score in the European elections but down compared to 2022 (25.6%).

All this translates into seat projections, which must however be taken with even more caution than usual, particularly because the second round configurations will depend on participation. A candidate who has obtained 12.5% ​​of registered voters can remain in the race even if he is third and thus cause three-way races.

The RN towards an absolute majority

With the turnout index measured by the various surveys approaching 65% (a figure corroborated by the record number of proxies established), candidates could remain with less than 20% of the votes in the first round. The question will then arise of whether the candidates who came third will remain in the race and of the voting instructions given by those eliminated.

At this stage, the projections confirm the dynamics in favor of the extreme right. While no survey gave the RN an absolute majority just a few days ago, it now obtains in the upper range more than the 289 seats needed. On average, Jordan Bardella’s party is credited with 269 seats, more than triple the current RN group in the Assembly (88 deputies).

Second, the New Popular Front is also progressing compared to 2022 but in smaller proportions. He is credited with 168 seats, compared to 144 in the hemicycle as it was on June 9. If the results of July 7 resemble those of these final surveys, the big loser will be the presidential majority. The 100 seat mark is not even guaranteed (94 in the projection) for a camp which had 250 three weeks ago.

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