For more than a year, the United States has firmly supported Israel in its war in the Gaza Strip, while exerting strong pressure to align its ally. With the return of Donald Trump, this will no longer be the case, even if It’s anything but predictable.
Unlike all recent presidents, Donald Trump has never committed to an independent and sovereign Palestinian state.
He heads a Republican Party so pro-Israel that some local offices handed out Israeli flags alongside Trump signs during the election campaign.
President Joe Biden has been strongly criticized by the left wing of the Democratic Party for his support for Israel.
While Joe Biden’s two ambassadors to Israel were American Jews sometimes critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump’s choice fell on evangelical Christian pastor Mike Huckabee, a former governor who sees biblical reasons to defend Israel .
Other officials appointed by Mr. Trump include Senator Marco Rubio, a hawk on Iran, as secretary of state, and Representative Elise Stefanik, known for speaking out against the way American universities handled the protests. pro-Palestinian, to the post of ambassador to the United Nations.
“They are more pro-Israeli than most Israelis,” says Asher Fredman, director of the Misgav Institute, an Israeli think tank.
He expects Mr. Trump to adopt an “America First” approach aimed at limiting reliance on U.S. military resources and refocusing on China, which means both giving Israel the means to fight its enemies and encourage the normalization of its relations with Arab States, particularly Saudi Arabia.
“There really is enormous potential for a paradigm shift in a number of areas such as advancing regional cooperation and putting maximum pressure on Iran,” Fredman said.
Risk-averse Biden
Joe Biden visited Tel Aviv in October 2023, a few days after the Hamas attack on Israel, hugging Mr. Netanyahu and declaring himself proud to support Israel.
Since then, Mr. Biden has repeatedly criticized Mr. Netanyahu for the heavy toll paid by civilians in Gaza and sought in vain to prevent the opening of a second front in Lebanon.
But Mr. Biden only exercised once, last May, the United States’ ultimate means of pressure: the leverage of billions of dollars in military aid to Israel.
In a letter, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin gave Israel a month in mid-October to allow more aid into Gaza, under penalty of limiting certain deliveries of American weapons.
But in the end, the Biden administration decided not to follow through on that threat, even though a new UN-backed assessment warned of imminent famine in Gaza.
Blinken told reporters on Wednesday that the letter had succeeded in instilling a “sense of urgency” in Israel, which has implemented 12 of the 15 measures demanded by Washington.
For Allison McManus, of the Center for American Progress, the letter offered an opportunity for the Biden administration to toughen its policy, but the American president preferred to leave a legacy of his “almost unconditional support” for Israel.
No easy agreement
Despite his position on a Palestinian state, Donald Trump boasts of seeking historic agreements. “There is certainly a world in which, if Netanyahu persists, as he did in the ceasefire negotiations, then I would not be surprised if Trump sought to exert some pressure,” Allison said. McManus.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official, notes that the president-elect advocates an “opportunistic, transactional and ad hoc” foreign policy.
But, he said, even if Mr. Trump sought to reach a deal on Gaza, he would face the same obstacles as Mr. Biden, namely the risk of Hamas surviving and the absence, so far, of a new regional security architecture.
“He cannot end the war in Gaza and will not pressure Netanyahu to do so,” notes Mr. Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Elie Pieprz, of the Israeli Defense and Security Forum, believes that Donald Trump will seek to ease friction with Mr. Netanyahu and “restore greatness to relations between the United States and Israel.”
