In tables listing expenditure and revenue, the IFRAP Foundation has quantified for Figaro Magazine what the application of the measures of the different blocs would represent for the year 2027. In terms of public expenditure, the New Popular Front is far ahead.
For Le Figaro Magazine, the Ifrap Foundation released its calculator. This Saturday, June 22, it quantifies for the year 2027 the promises of new spending and revenues of the three main blocs vying for the legislative elections. And according to the liberal-inspired think tank, in terms of public spending, the New Popular Front is far ahead.
233 billion in new spending for the left bloc would be identified by 2027. Firstly, the return of retirement at 60 with a contribution of 40 annuities for all represents more than a third of the spending shock, or 68 billion euros. The second budgetary item is the increase in minimum pensions and the minimum old age. Other items are quantified, including free first KWh of electricity or the increase in the minimum wage for civil servants, its equivalent in the private sector theoretically not being the responsibility of the State. These figures should be compared with those announced by Eric Coquerel yesterday, 100 billion in spending for 2025 even if the temporality is different.
A public deficit of 178 billion additional euros for the left’s program
These expenses would be weakly offset by 55 billion in additional revenue, including the reestablishment of the IS or the elimination of the flat tax on income from movable capital. The tax on superprofits would play no role in 2027, since this contribution would not be recurring. According to the IFRAP Foundation, the public deficit would increase by nearly 178 billion euros per year if the New Popular Front program is implemented. A doubling of France’s current deficit which amounts to 154 billion euros for 2023, according to INSEE. The note notes a risk of very rapid sanctions by investors.
Conversely, Eric Coquerel announced at a press conference on Friday June 21 that the program would not be financed by an increase in deficits.
Certain unconstitutional savings avenues of the National Rally
The costing of the measures of the left bloc is more precise than that of the other blocs, because not all of them have communicated an exhaustive statement of their program. The IFRAP Foundation also specifies that the figures will be updated in real time until the vote.
For the National Rally, the task is difficult since certain measures could be postponed, or taken secondarily after an “audit of public finances” demanded by its leader Jordan Bardella. “It appears that the National Rally is beginning to understand how close France is already to a debt crisis and that the promises made during the 2022 presidential elections are not at all tenable from a budgetary point of view” , notes the Foundation in its analysis. The party’s main expenditure item would be the repeal of the pension reform which would give rise to 8 billion in additional annual expenditure. The reduction in VAT on energy products would hit state revenues by 16.7 billion. While noting that certain avenues for savings, including national preference on social assistance, would be unconstitutional, the Foundation calculates the amount and deducts it from budgeted expenditure. Among additional revenues, calling into question the tax loophole for shipowners would release 2 billion euros.
For 2027, the balance sheet of the far-right bloc’s program would present a negative balance of 8.5 billion euros.
Unemployment compensation reform would bring in 4.4 billion euros
For the presidential majority bloc, the IFRAP Foundation notes the absence of truly new proposals, not included in the budget. In terms of future savings, the reform of unemployment compensation would bring in 4.4 billion euros. As for new expenses, the elimination of transfer taxes for valuable consideration for first-time buyers and the exemption from certain direct inheritance taxes. Despite these relatively modest amounts compared to other programs, and a positive balance of the new measures, the think tank notes scathingly: “It is not a few billion less spending in 2027 that we will need but rather 70 billion. “
