Oil: what does OPEC plan for 2024 and 2025?
OPEC, in its latest monthly report, estimates that global oil demand will reach 104.03 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, a slight downward revision from the forecast 104.14 mb/d last month. This correction, although small, corresponds to a reduction of 107,000 barrels per day, reflecting lower global demand growth than initially expected.
In 2025, the organization forecasts demand of 105.57 mb/d, a forecast also revised downward by 103,000 barrels compared to previous estimates. This slowdown mainly concerns OECD countries, while nations outside this group, such as China, the Middle East and India, remain the main drivers of this growth in black gold consumption.
| Year | Initial demand forecast (mb/d) | Current revision (mb/d) | Variation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 104,14 | 104,03 | -107 000 |
| 2025 | 105,78 | 105,57 | -103 000 |
These revisions take into account the most recent economic data, including in particular the impact of a slowdown in industrial performance and consumption in certain regions of the world. According to OPEC, this revaluation is due to adjustments for the first three quarters of 2024.
Main drivers of oil demand: non-OECD countries in the lead
Oil demand, although revised downward, remains supported by non-OECD countries, mainly in Asia and Latin America. China continues to play a major role, notably thanks to strong demand in the transport and petrochemical sectors, driven by growing refining capacities.
OPEC estimates that demand from these regions, outside the OECD, is expected to grow by around 1.7 mb/d in 2024, with notable contributions from China, but also from the Middle East and India. In 2025, the same regions are still expected to drive demand, with an expected increase of 1.5 mb/d, driven by the resumption of air travel, road mobility and growing industrialization in these areas.
List of countries contributing to the growth in demand:
- Chine : increase in refining capacities and growing demand for fuels.
- Middle East : strong activity in the petrochemical sector.
- Inde et Latin America : industrial development and increased mobility.
Oil prices: prices still under pressure
Despite these forecasts, oil prices remain in a low range. On November 13, 2024, a barrel of Brent, the main benchmark, stood at $72.53, while American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained at $68.377.
OPEC+, an alliance between OPEC countries and external producers such as Russia, extended its production cuts until the end of December, hoping to contain downward pressure on prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia, among the main players in OPEC+, have announced that they will maintain their production cuts in order to support prices.
| Date | Brent ($/baril) | WTI ($/barrel) |
|---|---|---|
| November 13, 2024 | 72,53 | 68,377 |
The next OPEC summit, scheduled for December 1, 2024 in Vienna, will be decisive in defining production policy for 2025. Markets are awaiting with interest the results of this meeting, which could influence price trends for the start of next year.
OPEC faces the challenges of changing global demand
OPEC forecasts reveal continued adaptation to changes in the global market. Oil demand, while still growing, is increasingly influenced by geopolitical, economic and environmental factors. The ability of producing countries to adjust supply in response to these dynamics will be crucial to maintaining stable prices and supporting balanced demand growth.
Current measures taken by OPEC and its allies, such as reducing production, reflect this desire for stabilization. However, in the face of an uncertain outlook and continued volatility, challenges remain numerous.
