Paris (awp/afp) – OPEC, the organization of oil exporting countries, still forecasts growth in demand for black gold in 2024 and 2025, but like last month, it revised it downward by compared to its previous estimate, according to its latest monthly report published Tuesday.
The world will consume 104.03 million barrels per day (mb/day) in 2024, after 102.21 in 2023, indicates in this report the cartel of oil countries which revises its forecasts every month depending on the situation.
For 2025, OPEC forecasts global consumption of 105.57 million barrels per day.
In its previous estimate in October, OPEC forecast global consumption of 104.14 mb/day and 105.78 mb/day next year.
The forecasts for 2024 are thus slightly revised downwards by 107,000 barrels per day compared to the assessment of the previous month, to reach a “satisfactory level” of growth of 1.8 million barrels per day compared to 2023. . Growth mainly driven by non-OECD countries, for nearly 1.7 mb/d, primarily in China, but also in the Middle East, India and Latin America.
“This minor adjustment is mainly due to the updating of data for the 1st, 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter of 2024,” OPEC said.
In 2024, consumption will be supported “by strong demand for transport fuels and continued healthy economic growth, particularly in a number of non-OECD countries. Likewise, increasing refining capacity and petrochemical margins – mainly in China and the Middle East – should contribute to the growth in oil demand,” says OPEC.
For 2025, the growth in global demand for black gold is also revised slightly downward by 103,000 barrels per day compared to the last assessment, to reach 1.5 mb/d, an increase again almost exclusively driven by non-OECD countries and supported by air, road mobility, industry or construction.
From a supply perspective, crude oil production from OPEC and its allies increased by 0.21 mb/d in October month-on-month, averaging around 40.34 mb/d (after a drop of 0.56 mb/d in September and an average of 40.10 mb/d), OPEC said, citing “secondary sources”.
At the beginning of November, several members of OPEC+ (OPEC and its allies), including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced an extension of their oil production cuts until the end of December, thus postponing the reopening of the floodgates while prices are at half mast.
All ministers are due to meet on December 1 in Vienna, headquarters of OPEC.
afp/jh
