The formation of the federal government stands back and waits for that of the regions. Everything happens as if the composition of regional governments would dictate the composition of the federal government. As if the federal government became the mirror of the regions.
Old idea
We are perhaps witnessing the triumph of an old idea, born in the early 2000s, at the CD&V which was remaking itself a doctrine in the opposition. The radical idea of forming the federal government automatically, on the basis of the governments of Flanders and Wallonia or the French community, it depends. This formula, called mirror government, was presented as a new stage in federalism, which was not yet called confederalism, that of emptying the federal government of its political autonomy by applying a mechanism which transfers the composition of the Flemish and French-speaking executives to the higher level, co-management of Belgium by its two large communities.
Several versions of the formula have circulated. The most radical plans to eliminate even the national vote, the Chamber would be made up of regional and community elected officials. The softest version provides that this mirror government, dispatched by the two large communities, intervenes in the event that it is impossible to form a federal government within a given time limit.
Hostility
The idea has never really appealed to French speakers, however, it is in the process of being realized in practice. Francophones have always observed this formula with a little skepticism. For reasons of principle, they are hostile to confederalism, for tactical reasons too. On the left, the PS or Ecolo feared having to be forced to participate in right-wing formulas with the N-VA or even Vlaams Belang. On the right, the MR feared being ejected from federal power where it has held on since 1999 because of the regional balance of power which is less favorable to it.
It is this last element which has just shifted, Wallonia and the Wallonia-Brussels Federation have shifted to the right. The Flemish and French-speaking political landscapes are more congruent and therefore we see a mirror formation emerging from below. The regions provide the political impetus, drawing up coalitions which are called to govern together at the federal level. In the South, the MR and the Engagés, in the North, the N-VA, Vooruit, CD&V. This mirror majority, if it is established, will therefore see three parties without equivalent in the other community: the N-VA because it does not have one in the South, the MR without the VLD and Vooruit without the PS. A logic which sees the solidity of political families brought down by the force of regional political logics. To be confirmed obviously, because if blockages appear, it is not impossible that the MR wants the return of the VLD and that Vooruit wants the return of the PS.
Regions or communities?
But this federal mirror government of the regions, if it sees the light of day, is it really a sign that the regions have taken over the federal government? No not yet. Because if the regions had taken divergent political directions, as in 2019 or 2014, the mirror would not have worked. It is a political logic that is first at work. It is moreover a community logic, more than a regional one, that we are witnessing. A regionalist logic would require us to take Brussels into account. However, in Brussels, the situation is far from politically clear and everything happens as if this did not count in the equation. As in the dream of many Flemish nationalists, it is Flanders and Wallonia which provide the impetus. The formation of the Wallonia-Wallonia Federation has also begun, without waiting for Brussels. A Wallonia-Brussels Federation which will undoubtedly not be, as in 2019, the complete mirror of the Brussels and Walloon governments. Francophones have something to look at themselves in the mirror.
