Political analyst Brice Teinturier, deputy general manager of Ipsos, notes that the left-wing coalition is committed to the position of the Insoumis on the sensitive issue of the Middle East. And that it has major consequences on the outcome of the vote of June 30 and July 7.
Have you carried out seat simulations on the legislative elections with regard to the European elections?
No and I won’t make any until next week because it’s too fragile. You have to wait for the actual offers of applications. As long as we do not know the configuration of the first round you risk doing simulations in the second round. Furthermore, these projections have effects on voters in the public debate.
Can we discuss the main points based on the 2022 elections?
If we remember 2022, the presidential party, Ensemble, qualified in 414 constituencies with around 26% of the vote. Nupes was present in 379 constituencies with just under 26%; and the RN was present in 202 constituencies and made 18.7%. Just in view of these figures and the current balance of power you have an RN far above, a left bloc in approximately the same waters and Ensemble, become Renaissance is much lower: a conclusion is necessary, the RN will be massively present in the second round.
Is the left obliged to leave united?
We know that the disunited left will have much less presence in the second round and will provide resources to the presidential majority. If it is united, this will condition an extremely higher presence of the presence of Renaissance in the second round.
What is the state of public opinion after Sunday’s shocks and daily melodramas?
This pattern is totally unexpected, we agree. The French understood the issue very quickly and very well. That it wasn’t about voting for an election that has little impact on their daily lives. That cohabitation or a potential victory for the RN will change the face of the country… The distancing from the European elections has completely vanished.
With potentially greater participation?
Participation will increase in view of the stakes with an RN bloc and its allies in full swing which could have a relative or absolute majority. On the other, a left-wing bloc which can go there united or not and a very weakened presidential majority.
To date, can we say that the somewhat crazy bet of the President of the Republic is lost?
To date, and the word is important, because every day is different, it is difficult to see how there could not be a very sharp drop in the number of deputies of the presidential majority. But this will depend on the functioning of the left coalition.
Can the marriage of carp and rabbit on the left of the LFI and the PS in particular prosper?
That there is a pushback effect for a part of the left-wing voters of France Insoumise, we measure it with regard to the very strong unpopularity of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and with regard to the score of Raphaël Glucksmann who came in first to the Europeans. But this is counterbalanced by a united aspiration of left-wing voters who say to themselves: “we cannot disappear” and “the RN cannot win”. But in the negotiations we note that this comes up against the program around Hamas.
Why is it important ?
We live in a country where an organization, which I personally describe as terrorist, like Hamas, is determining whether or not there will be a coalition on the left. That the number of left-wing French deputies depends on Hamas, that it becomes a fundamental variable in the future of the country, is absolutely incredible. It’s astonishing and, at the same time, it’s a very important debate to qualify the degree of compatibility between these two lefts. We could add Ukraine, the relationship to secularism, the relationship to communitarianism… In any case, voters must know before they go to vote what the alliances are based on.
Is the RN on a good dynamic with regard to the European elections?
Three weeks before a result, the RN has been growing steadily in terms of popularity and voting intention for several elections. It is undeniably a formation which is dynamic when the left is stagnating and the presidential formation is in very clear decline. What will change is that this time, there is a second round.
A word on the second round?
It will bring into play a new unknown, voice carryover. What will left-wing voters do in the event of an RN Renaissance duel? I doubt that they will strongly favor the candidate of the presidential majority, including if the RN is at the gates of power. The Republican front is already very weakened and left-wing voters are very motivated by an anti-Macron vote, due to decisions on immigration, security, unemployment insurance reform, pensions, etc.
