The support of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni no longer appears as necessary after the European elections. Indeed, a clear pro-European majority in the European Parliament is poised to support Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) for a second term as President of the European Commission. However, experts say Giorgia Meloni could still play a crucial role for the EPP.
Before the elections, speculation was rife about Ms. Meloni’s potential role as queenmaker in the next European majority. She was courted by both the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the leading figure of the French National Rally, Marine Le Pen.
Now, after the vote, a wider majority of Greens, Socialists, EPP and Renew members appear likely to support Ms von der Leyen, which could reduce Ms Meloni’s influence, even if she is out of these elections with the “strongest government of all”as she said on Monday (June 10).
But both Ms. Meloni and Ms. von der Leyen do not reveal their game.
Ms. Meloni said Monday that it was “too early to give an answer” on the formation of a majority and its possible support for Ms von der Leyen’s second term, while the latter indicated that she would first consult the “big European families” who have “well done” with the European People’s Party (EPP), while leaving the ” open doors “ to other contacts.
” I think that [Giorgia] Meloni can still be a queenmaker because the EPP probably doesn’t fully trust the Greens or the socialists”Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at LUISS Guido Carli University, told Euractiv Italy.
For Mr Castellani, Ms von der Leyen risks facing opposition not only from the S&D and the Greens, but also from factions within the EPP itself, which will likely lead her to seek support from the right, with Ms. Meloni as key interlocutor.
Castellani said Meloni’s votes could be crucial to securing the election of an EPP president, whether von der Leyen or someone else.
“[Giorgia]Meloni could be ready to vote for an EPP president to secure a bigger commissioner role in return”he added.
Mr Castellani also foresees varying majorities in the next European Parliament, with Ursula’s outgoing majority sometimes needing support from conservatives.
According to Mr Castellani, Ms Meloni has a firm grip on the EPP: “Just think about what has already happened with votes such as immigration or environmental policies, which is why I am skeptical that the Greens can be part of this majority permanently”did he declare.
Speaking to Euractiv Italy, Leo Goretti, head of the foreign policy program at the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI), agreed. However, he noted a convergence between the EPP, the CRE group and partly the ID on issues such as the Green Deal, which he believes will become a “significant political demarcation during the next European legislature”.
Mr. Goretti also sees convergence between the groups regarding the outsourcing of the management of migration flows and defense.
According to him, Ms Meloni remains a queenmaker not because of her potential decisive vote in Parliament, but because of her role in the European Council as the leader of a major country with a strong mandate, unlike French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
A supergroup in the European Parliament?
While Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen have called for a unification of the European right, Mr Goretti says this is unlikely because their two different positions “pull them in different directions”.
This could change if Ms Le Pen is elected.
As Italian Prime Minister, Ms Meloni must take into account “interests broader than the electoral objectives of his party. This pragmatism has led her to adopt a cooperative stance vis-à-vis the European Commission, recognizing the need to advance Italy’s global agenda, which requires engagement with European institutions.”
On the other hand, Ms. Le Pen, still in opposition, can afford to adopt a more confrontational position, “openly rejecting a second term for Mrs von der Leyen in order to distance herself from the European establishment”.
Mr Goretti suggests that if Ms Le Pen were president of France, she would likely take a more pragmatic approach, similar to that of Ms Meloni.
