Donald Trump and Europe, take 2 | US elections 2024

Congratulatory messages from across the Atlantic multiplied even before certain major American networks confirmed the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Unsurprisingly, it was Viktor Orban who got the ball rolling. The Hungarian Prime Minister, who traveled to Mar-a-Lago in recent months to meet Donald Trump, does not hide his proximity and his affinities with the 45th American president, who will soon become the 47th.

Several other messages followed. Keith Starmer in the United Kingdom, Emmanuel Macron in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy: all wanted to remind the next president of the importance of the transatlantic relationship.

If everyone says they are ready to work with the next tenant of the White House – Emmanuel Macron and his entourage have repeated on multiple occasions that they had, after all, already collaborated with Donald Trump between 2017 and 2021 – many leaders State and government are preparing for the possibility of a complicated, even tense, relationship with Washington.

First, on the security level. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has been dealing with the return of large-scale conflict on the continent. If the member countries of the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom have multiplied the announcements of financial and military aid to kyiv in recent years, the weight of this cannot in any way be compared to the support offered by the United States.

By the end of August, Washington had delivered more than US$56 billion in weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, in addition to other financial support, according to a report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German institution . For comparison, Germany, the second largest contributor, delivered the equivalent of US$10.6 billion.

The upcoming arrival of Donald Trump at the helm of the American administration could considerably change this portrait. During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last September, the then Republican candidate promised to settle quickly war if he was elected. A deadline of 24 hours was even mentioned. In his camp, military aid to kyiv, perceived as contributing to prolonging the conflict, was questioned.

Still on the theme of defense, a dispute risks re-emerging between the new Trump administration and the governments of certain European countries. During his first term, Donald Trump criticized certain members of theI’LL TAKEincluding Canada, for not investing enough in their defense budget. During the campaign, the Republican candidate even declared that he would encourage Russia to attack a member of the alliance which does not invest sufficiently in its defense.

Whether to help Ukraine, or to possibly defend itself, failing to be able to count on the unwavering support of the American ally, certain European politicians are calling on Europe to give itself greater military autonomy by investing more significantly in this sector.

This must be a wake-up call for Europedeclared the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, on Wednesday.

A common European strategy?

However, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to power is not a surprise. In Europe, some have been calling for preparation for several years. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs claims to have developed contacts in his entourage and German political parties even sent emissaries to the Republican convention last summer. But given the functioning and complexity of the dynamics within the European Union, a common strategy has struggled to be put in place.

Since the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory, the pace of discussions seems to be accelerating, particularly between France and Germany. President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke on Wednesday morning to address this new geopolitical context, and their Defense Ministers participated in a joint meeting on Wednesday evening in Paris.

What appears to be a determination to adopt a common approach could nevertheless encounter its share of obstacles, between the political fragility of Emmanuel Macron in Paris and the persistent dissensions which led to the breakup of the German coalition yesterday.

One thing is certain, the difficulties emerging for Europe are common, among others on the commercial level with the future president’s promise to impose customs tariffs of 10% on all imports, barriers that several economic players fear, notably in Germany. The European Union will pay a big price for not buying enough American products, Donald Trump threatened during a rally at the end of the campaign.

Faced with these challenges, will Europeans adopt a concerted strategy? Or will certain leaders prefer to negotiate piecemeal agreements advantageous for their country with a White House where the art of deal will be appropriate? In his congratulatory message addressed to Donald Trump, the president of Lithuania, a small Baltic state, for example, did not fail to specify that his country had respected its commitments in terms of defense investments.

After the initial reactions, we will perhaps have a first glimpse of the European response in the framework of meetings between heads of state and government which are taking place today and tomorrow.

Meetings which, as a result of chance, are held in Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban holds the rotating presidency of the Council of theUE. This leader, often criticized by his colleagues, suddenly sees his balance of power increase, given his privileged relationship with the next president of the United States, a country which remains essential for the continent, whether Europeans like it or not.