This would not be the first time that North Korea has come to Russia's aid in war. It is already a major arms supplier. According to Budanov, deliveries that began at the end of 2022 reached 2.8 million shells per year, which is 100,000 shells less than Russia's annual production of 2.9 million shells. Since late 2023, North Korea has also sent ballistic missiles, the launch systems of which are maintained by North Korean crews. These missiles, which mostly come from old stocks, have irregular performance on the battlefield. They regularly exceed military targets to devastate Ukrainian cities.
North Korea does not donate its men or weapons out of charity. The enhanced cooperation stems from a mutual assistance treaty, signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un during a dictators' ceremony in Pyongyang in June 2024. A secret agreement operating with counterparts: money and knowledge – make Russians in exchange for North Korean men and missiles. Russia helps North Korea circumvent sanctions and “strengthen” its nuclear capabilities. In particular, it transfers technologies for low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and underwater missile launch systems. This alarming claim, however, has not been corroborated by independent sources.
The partnership could be a sign of weakness for Russia, which previously viewed North Korea as a “pigmy state.” But on the battlefield, things remain very difficult for Ukraine. Russia is making significant progress in simultaneously pressing multiple points along the 1,000 km front line, despite staggering human losses that have now exceeded 600,000 dead and wounded, according to US estimates. Russia is surrounding Pokrovsk, a major logistics center in eastern Ukraine, and advancing further south, after taking control of the heights around Vuhledar.
Ukraine's concerns are not limited to the fragility of the front lines. Western support, already very limited, seems more precarious than before. A victory by Donald Trump in the US elections could wipe out much of the direct military aid. A victory for Kamala Harris doesn't promise anything either. Germany, Ukraine's second largest donor, has already indicated that aid will be reduced. France did the same.
Ukraine wants to use North Korea's involvement to boost its own diplomatic efforts. “In such circumstances, our relations with our partners must be further developed,” Zelensky said on October 13.
The question of how North Korean troops, who have not yet proven themselves, will perform on the European battlefield remains open. They have not yet been exposed to the realities of modern warfare, now dominated by cheap and deadly tactical strike drones. It will take them a few weeks to adapt, if they hold out. But for General Budanov, it was an “unwelcome experience”. Russian soldiers are one thing, the spy chief says, the vast majority of them demotivated and resigned to their fate. The North Koreans, on the other hand, have a pre-programmed ideology. They have families back home who could be executed if things don't go well. “They solve some problems for the Russians. There are reasons to be concerned.”
