the essential
Donald Trump was found guilty on Thursday at his criminal trial in New York, a first for a former American president and an earthquake for the billionaire who calls himself “innocent”. What consequences can this conviction have on the candidate who intends to return to the Oval Office of the White House?
This is unprecedented; a former American president (who is also a candidate for a second presidential term) has never been convicted criminally. But this unprecedented conviction may not carry much weight in the campaign of the Republican candidate, who could return to his chair as president without hindrance as early as November.
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Former President Donald Trump convicted on 26 counts
After two days of deliberation, the 12 jurors unanimously declared Donald Trump guilty of at least 26 of the 34 crimes of falsification of accounting documents, intended to hide a payment of 130,000 dollars to the porn actress Stormy Daniels to avoid a sex scandal at the very end of his 2016 presidential campaign.
The sentence handed down on July 11
The sentence will be pronounced on July 11 by Judge Juan Merchan, four days before the Republican Party convention which is to nominate Donald Trump, 77, as the candidate of the American conservatives. In theory, the former president faces up to four years in prison, possibly accompanied by a fine. But the judge could also impose a suspended prison sentence, or even community service.
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Can the former president go to prison?
Release recalls that Judge Merchan declared during the trial: “You are the former president of the United States, and perhaps the next president too. The last thing I want is to put you in prison”, and for good reason, the judge believes that pressure and a certain insecurity could weigh on “the people responsible for carrying out this sanction: justice officers, prison officers, members of the secret services, among others”. The penalty imposed could therefore instead result in a fine, suspended sentence or community service.
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An appeal trial which would postpone the execution of the sentence
Donald Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, said Thursday that he plans to appeal the guilty verdict against his client as soon as he can, after other legal steps. This new trial could take more than 6 months, which would delay the execution of Donald Trump’s sentence. In the meantime, nothing in the American constitution prevents him from continuing his presidential campaign.
“Immunity” in the event of victory?
If he is re-elected, Donald Trump is certain to escape prison, at least temporarily. A victory would in fact freeze the execution of the sentence as long as the condemned person occupied the Oval Office. The question of a presidential pardon arises even if he becomes president again. Donald Trump raised this hypothesis in 2018, when he was still president. But according to specialists in American law, it would not be that simple.
As has been stated by numerous legal scholars, I have the absolute right to PARDON myself, but why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong? In the meantime, the never ending Witch Hunt, led by 13 very Angry and Conflicted Democrats (& others) continues into the mid-terms!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1003616210922147841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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How will the campaign unfold?
The verdict falls in the middle of the presidential campaign, as the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden looms, on June 27, and the Republican convention in Milwaukee, from July 15 to 18.
Pending the end of his appeal trial, candidate Donald Trump remains free. He has already announced that he will hold a press conference this Friday at 5 p.m. (French time) from his Trump Tower. His Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, for his part declared that “no one is above the law”, warning that only the “ballot” will ensure that Donald Trump does not return to the Oval Office.
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The repercussions of this conviction are difficult to predict; the candidate, found guilty of manipulation during the 2016 presidential campaign, could lose voters, but some observers predict, on the contrary, a revival of popularity. For Matthew Turner, this verdict “will make him even more popular in the eyes of the American people.”
We already observed this at the time of his inauguration. Indeed, since 2023, his indictments in four separate criminal cases and his three civil convictions – legal troubles that he describes as a “witch hunt” orchestrated by the Democrats – have not prevented him from handily winning the primary of his party. Release even specifies that Donald Trump is now “finally freed from his obligation to appear in court almost daily, but now weighed down with the aura of a habitual criminal, condemned unanimously, by a jury made up of twelve ordinary American citizens”.
And his other trials?
Donald Trump is charged in several civil and criminal cases, including charges of insurrection, election rigging and concealment of confidential files. The candidate risks new convictions and could have to pay substantial fines, which could weigh on his campaign. He has already made it known that he is launching an appeal for donations from a dedicated page where he depicts himself as a “political prisoner”.
