For the United States, there is a red line that China must not cross with regard to Vladimir Putin’s Russia: not providing it with direct military assistance. This is the main message that American Secretary of State Antony Blinken will reiterate to the highest Chinese authorities during his official visit to Shanghai and Beijing, from Wednesday April 24 to Friday April 26. The head of American diplomacy will also take advantage of the recent softening of ties with China to warn it against any action “provocative” during the inauguration, on May 20, of the new president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te.
In itself, this trip by Antony Blinken testifies to a warming of relations between the United States and China, degraded under the presidency of Donald Trump who once again promises to take a hard line against Beijing if he wins the November elections. However, President Joe Biden, while seeking a more peaceful dialogue, is maintaining pressure on Beijing. In recent months, he has increased his warnings about Chinese support for Russia, which continues to strengthen. And in the Asia-Pacific, it is strengthening its military alliances with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, victims of Chinese maritime harassment.
Balance of power
“We are in a different situation than a year ago, when bilateral relations were at a historically low level,” a senior American official told journalists on the eve of this trip. “We set out to stabilize bilateral relations without sacrificing our ability to strengthen our alliances, compete vigorously and defend our interests”, he said on condition of anonymity. Washington is assuming more than ever the balance of power with Beijing and will once again openly denounce the massive transfer of Chinese dual-use materials which Russia uses to produce ammunition and weapons used in its war against Ukraine.
During a G7 conference in Capri, Italy last weekend, Xi Jinping’s ears must have whistled when he heard the words of the head of American diplomacy who accused Beijing of” feed “ indirectly the conflict in Ukraine: “If China wants to have friendly relations with Europe and other countries on the one hand, it cannot fuel on the other hand what is the greatest threat to European security since the end of the war cold. » It remains to be seen what pressure tactics the United States is prepared to impose so that China responds to American injunctions?
An “indestructible” Sino-Russian alliance
“These American warnings will only be effective if Washington outright bans certain strategic Chinese imports into the United States, defends Robert Dujarric, co-director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, but also limits certain American exports to China. » Washington is also threatening several Chinese banks with cutting them off from the international financial system. In a very tense economic context in China, these reprisals would have dangerous social consequences. However, many observers doubt that China will give in to these threats, as the Sino-Russian alliance seems “indestructible”in the words of Xi Jinping.
Finally, on the issue of Taiwan, a major Source of disagreement between Beijing and Washington, Antony Blinken should also warn the Chinese authorities against possible action “provocative” during the inauguration, on May 20, of the new president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te. China is protesting against American arms sales to Taipei, while the United States is complaining that Beijing intends to change the status quo there at all costs, even if it means carrying out a military operation.
