The 1is January 2025, unclassified and Crit'Air 3, 4 and 5 classified vehicles will be prohibited from circulating in 4 major metropolitan areas (Paris, Lyon, Grenoble and Montpellier). According to official data, nearly 850,000 private vehicles will be affected by this ban in these four metropolises. If we take into account their catchment area, this ban will affect more than 2 million vehicles.
Although ZFEs have been denounced as socially and territorially unjust, certain metropolises are working to put them in place even though they are far from having proven themselves in the fight against air pollution.
In 2020, ADEME, in collaboration with the research firm Rincent AIR, produced an assessment of ZFE-m in Europe. On his site, the latter noted that “ more than twenty years after the launch of the first ZFE-m, the majority of devices implemented across Europe have a limited effect on NO concentrations2 and fine particles on a local scale ».
In France, the improvements observed in recent years in terms of air pollution have nothing to do with the ZFE-m which are currently all virtual. Essentially, these improvements, as far as road transport is concerned, result from the implementation, over the years, of increasingly restrictive EURO standards. A new step could have been taken with the EURO 7 standard but this, adopted in April 2024 by the Council of the European Union, marginally modifies the EURO 6 standard. France and Bruno Le Maire in particular were at the point of this fight against a new, more restrictive standard.
To justify their implementation, supporters of ZFE-m invoke the argument of 47,000 premature deaths due to atmospheric pollution. They forget to specify that, according to Santé Publique France, 40,000 of these premature deaths are due to exposure to fine particles (PM2,5)and 7,000 to exposure to NO2. If road transport is the main emitter of NO emissions2up to 47%[1]this is far from being the case with regard to fine particles (10%). However, ZFE-m have almost no impact on fine particles to the extent that electric vehicles and thermal SUVs (47% of registrations in 2023!), due to their weight, emit almost as many fine particles as thermal vehicles since the generalization of the particle filter on diesel vehicles. In terms of PM fine particle emissions2,5the main emitters are the residential sector (68%) and industry (16%).
The argument of the effectiveness of ZFE-m in the fight against air pollution therefore does not hold up. In fact, their sole purpose is to accelerate the natural renewal of the automobile fleet but not to reduce the modal share of the car in transport. In the previously mentioned assessment, ADEME noted that everywhere the establishment of an ZFE-m had no significant impact on the reduction in the number of vehicles in circulation.
Already, most of the media are echoing the concerns of motorists targeted by the bans which will take effect on 1is January 2025. Do we measure the violence that is committed against the person whose vehicle is no longer allowed to enter the metropolis in which he lives, works or travels for various reasons (health, education , training, culture, etc.)?
But we are told that these motorists have been aware of this ban for years now and should therefore have anticipated it. By changing vehicles? But purchasing an electric vehicle is out of reach for the vast majority of households. And purchasing a new thermal vehicle is becoming increasingly difficult for a large part of the population. The average price of a new vehicle increased from €26,000 in 2018 to just over €36,000 in 2023. It is therefore not surprising that three-quarters of households are opting for used vehicles. , mainly with diesel engines, whose average age increased from 9.7 years in 2020 to 10.7 years in 2023.
Can vehicle change assistance be the solution? The answer is no. In addition to the fact, as recognized by the former Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, that in 2023 only a quarter of the aid benefited the most modest, this leaves too much of a burden for the very large majority of homes. And this is not about to get better to the extent that two decrees (February and December) of 2024 have reduced all aid. Not to mention the aborted 2025 budget project which planned to reduce the amount of aid (social leasing, conversion bonus, ecological bonus) from 1.5 billion euros to 1 billion.
Talking today about the production in France of an affordable electric car and measures such as a zero-interest loan or a conversion bonus of 10,000 euros is to avoid the problem that will arise. impact hundreds of thousands, even millions of motorists in the short or medium term: that of banning the use of their vehicles. In the 43 ZFE and vigilance territories, a quarter of vehicles are unclassified or Crit'air 3, 4 and 5, or 2,968,000 vehicles. If we were to grant a bonus of €10,000 to all these motorists to change vehicles, it would cost the state budget 29.68 billion euros!
Don't you think that these billions of euros should instead be used to develop alternative forms of mobility that are less polluting than the car, whether thermal or electric? And it's time to stop forcing people to change vehicles?
The ZFE-m are a dead end, we must abandon them and clearly state that the only solution to reduce the modal share of the car in the city and improve air quality is to give public transport as the first choice of mobility (train, bus, metro, tram) and gentle modes of transport (walking, cycling).
[1]Source CITEPA – Avril 2024
