- For 2024, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) is only forecasting growth in real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sports events) of 0.9 percent.
- The federal expert group had previously assumed 1.2 percent.
- Federal economists expect a moderate upswing in 2025. Things are not expected to pick up a little more until 2026.
- Overall, the uncertainty regarding international economic and trade policy remains “very high,” according to Seco.
Federal economists have also become more cautious about 2025. They now expect growth of 1.5 percent. In September they had forecast an increase of 1.6 percent.
The situation in Germany remains tense and the franc remains highly valued. This slows down the export economy.
The constant support: domestic consumption
Open the box
Box zuklappen
SRF economics editor Benita Vogel classifies the federal economists’ correction:
“The Swiss economy is growing less strongly than previously forecast. That’s not surprising. Switzerland, as the world champion in trade – exports of goods make up around 50 percent of the country’s economic output (GDP) – is particularly affected by the effects of international economic and political crises. Germany – the second most important export market – is stumbling. Industrial companies that have car manufacturers as customers, for example, are feeling this with sometimes drastic declines in sales. But international trade is not just declining. It’s going well with other countries: most recently with the USA, for example. And despite the strong dependence on foreign countries, one must not forget that the Swiss economy has been able to rely on one support over the past decades: the consumers in Switzerland who buy products and services. Domestic demand has mostly supported the economy and, according to forecasters, will do so again this time. This is also positive news for the job market. The unemployment rate is rising, but at currently 2.6 percent it is still comparatively moderate.
First forecast for 2026
For the first time there is a forecast for GDP growth for 2026: an increase of 1.7 percent is expected.
Major sporting events such as the European Football Championship and the Olympic Games are excluded. These bring a windfall of money into the country every two years, as the headquarters of FIFA, UEFA and the International Olympic Committee are in Switzerland.
Inflation is expected to decline more sharply
With regard to inflation, Seco expects a sharper decline in 2025 than before. Prices are only expected to rise by 0.3 percent next year.
In September, economists were still expecting a price increase of 0.7 percent.
KOF also dampens expectations
The economic researchers at ETH Zurich (KOF) are also dampening expectations. For the current year, they only expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sports events) to grow by 0.9 percent instead of the previous 1.1 percent, according to a statement.
And the forecast for 2025 was also reduced to 1.4 from 1.6 percent. For 2026, the KOF remains at 1.7 percent.
Swiss
