INFOGRAPHICS – France, whose rating was downgraded by Moody's, maintains very good ratings but is on the verge of a downgrade.
Barely appointed to Matignon and already a first slap in the face for François Bayrou! France's rating was downgraded by the American rating agency Moody's. Six months after Standard & Poor's (S&P) which could have done it again two weeks ago but preferred to grant an unexpected reprieve to France. It remains to be seen whether this generosity will not be short-lived. At the end of November, the American agency hoped that France would “comply with the European budgetary framework and gradually consolidate its public finances“. But the task is arduous. The new Prime Minister, who has long made public finances his political priority, is aware of this. “No one knows the difficulty of the situation more than me», insisted François Bayrou, during the transfer of power with his predecessor Michel Barnier, at Matignon.
The mission is all the more complicated as the head of government may have to face a full-blown attack on the financial markets next week. Will France's status as the main engine of Europe, along with Germany, be called into question? And all the more so since countries once plunged into crisis, such as Portugal and Spain, are better treated by investors, but not by rating agencies. Its ratings, awarded by the three main agencies, certainly remain among the best, but France is slowly but surely declining, like the ranking of the largest economic powers.
Downgrading risk
For Moody's, 12 countries still have their triple A, the best rating (see below). But France is not one of them. It is certainly better rated than the United Kingdom or Belgium, but Austria, Finland, South Korea and even Qatar are also ahead of the seventh economic power in the world.
On the S&P side, the situation is not more encouraging. Quite the contrary. France is still not one of the 11, this time, the best students. Worse: three other countries (United States, United Kingdom, Ireland) have slipped between this “premium” group and our country.
Finally, for Fitch, which maintained France's rating in October but with a negative outlook, the country remains one of the best-rated countries but is also on a downward slope. As with S&P, France is one rank away from being downgraded. If these two agencies downgrade France again, its rating will go from “high quality” to “upper average quality”. Like the United Kingdom or Belgium.
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