In the event of a motion of censure being adopted, the Prime Minister and his government would fall. In the process, France would find itself without a budget for 2025. Several political but also budgetary options would then be on the table, opening a period of uncertainty.
For several days, the government has been warning of censorship by Michel Barnier's government in December. “There will probably be a fairly serious storm,” threatened the Prime Minister himself on TF1 this Tuesday evening.
Same story for Maud Bregeon, the government spokesperson, who is worried that France is being “sent into the wall”. Dramatization or real concern, what would happen if the Barnier government's budget was rejected?
The consequences on the 2025 budget and political life
The executive's first concern: the future of the state budget for next year. The text should return to the National Assembly on December 18. At that time, Michel Barnier should “probably” activate the cartridge of 49.3, this article of the Constitution which allows a text to be adopted without a vote.
A motion of censure should then be tabled immediately before being debated probably on December 20. By adding the votes of the National Rally and the left, there are 320 deputies who can bring down the government, significantly more than the 289 votes needed.
De facto, France would subsequently find itself without a budget. This would be a first since the beginning of the Fifth Republic. To remedy this, several hypotheses are on the table.
• First option: the vote on a “special law”
The resigning government will have to manage current affairs, as that of Gabriel Attal did this summer. He could then ask the Senate and the Assembly to pass a special finance law.
Article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws allows the government to “urgently request authorization from Parliament to collect taxes”. This provision also allows “credits by decree within the limit of the amount of the previous year for services which are deemed essential and which allow the State to function”.
Very concretely, the various items in the state budget would all receive funds to allow, for example, the payment of civil servants' salaries.
Last year's budget would also be renewed to the nearest euro and could not create new taxes. Exit therefore several provisions desired by Michel Barnier such as taxation on the wealthiest or the increase in taxes on electricity.
“The 2024 finance bill will pass again,” Marine Le Pen translated Monday as she left her meeting with Matignon.
Then instruct Parliament to find a new agreement on the 2025 budget. In the meantime, the special finance law would divide the budget into 12 tranches, one per month. This device was used for years under the Third Republic.
Exit therefore the risk of “shutdown”, which refers to a situation of budgetary blockage preventing administrations from functioning and civil servants from being paid in the United States, and brandished by some in macronia.
• Second option: the use of article 47 of the Constitution
Another possibility for the resigning government: rely on article 47 of the Constitution. This provision allows the budget to be passed by order if Parliament has not decided within 70 days.. This deadline corresponds to December 21 at midnight for the state budget.
Problem: Michel Barnier has every chance of being overthrown on December 20. Can a resigning government, in this scenario, make use of these orders in the Council of Ministers? The question divides constitutionalists, the situation having never arisen before.
“We can assume that faced with this type of uncertainty, the government could play it safe and instead rely on a special law,” explains a former ministerial advisor to Bercy.
The consequences on the financial situation of France
Alongside the political aspect, other more financial questions arise. How would the markets, through which France finances its debt, receive the overthrow of the Barnier government? Would they be tempted to increase interest rates, automatically widening the deficit, which already exceeds 6%?
• First option: a risk of an increase in interest rates on French debt
The Prime Minister expressed his concerns about the financial situation. “There would probably be serious turbulence on the financial markets,” said Michel Barnier on Tuesday evening on TF1.
“Let's give France a budget for 2025 so as not to provoke, in addition to a political crisis, a financial crisis”, demanded for his part the Minister of Budget Laurent Saint-Martin this Wednesday on France inter.
In the event of government censorship and the absence of a 2025 budget immediately, such a scenario “would not bankrupt France but would indeed lead to an increase in the interest rates at which the country finances itself on the markets”judge Sylvain Bersinger, economist at Asteres.
Signs already exist: the gap between the interest rates of the ten-year benchmark loan between France and Germany has reached its highest level since 2012 – which suggests that Paris might, in the long term, have difficulty having its debt purchased by the markets.
The observation, however, remains to be put into perspective: in 2012, Germany borrowed at interest rates among the lowest in its history, mechanically increasing the difference with France. The real question is rather that of rates which would increase slightly or suddenly.
“No one can anticipate the market reaction. It is enough for certain large investors to be worried by what is happening (…) for them to disengage and take a good part of the market with them,” analyzes Gilbert Cet, professor of economics at Neoma Business School.
“Our subject is that France and its debt no longer give confidence to banks and investors. There we would have a big problem. But we are still very, very far from it and it is not very credible since we will inevitably end up with a budget,” puts a former ministerial advisor into perspective.
• Second option: France would cease payment
The doorwoman Maud Bregeon, for her part, spoke of the risk of a “Greek-style scenario”. In 2008, Athens was forced to appeal to the IMF and the European Union, after the surge in market rates to finance itself, pushing it to the brink of payment default.
The situation between Greece in 2008 and France in 2024, however, has nothing to do with it. Athens was facing difficulties in raising taxes, the accounts had been disguised and the country's place on the European scene is not the same.
“Greek interest rates were not at 3% like today. Greek interest rates rose to 30%. That was the crisis,” recalls Éric Heyer, director of the analysis department. and forecast at the OFCE.
For comparison, Greece had a deficit of more than 13% in 2008 compared to 6.1% for the year 2024 in France.
France also continues to finance itself without the slightest difficulty on the markets, the French debt remaining a safe bet for investors. Especially since banking institutions believe that the European Central Bank would intervene in the event of a serious crisis.
As proof: despite the political crisis of last summer, after the dissolution desired by Emmanuel Macron and the resigned government of Gabriel Attal, the “quality of its debt”, in other words the chances for investors to still be reimbursed , remains among the best.
The French debt rating has certainly suffered a demotion last July by the Standard&Poor's agency, while France was in the midst of a political crisis, but France's ability to honor its debt maturities still remains “very strong” underlined the rating agency's criteria.
Marie-Pierre Bourgeois and Paul Louis
