It was around 2:30 a.m. (8:30 a.m. in France) when on the other side of the Atlantic, Donald Trump took the stage, looking satisfied. The results from Pennsylvania have just been released. “This is a political victory never seen before in our country. Thank you for electing me 47e President of the United States »already claims the Republican candidate.
The results of the American presidential election announce the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump. For Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos, author of the book The United States on the brink of civil war? (Éditions de l’Aube, 2024), analyzed for West France the lessons of the election after the announcement of the first results.
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The “winner takes all” rule
In addition to the states traditionally won by the Republicans (which unsurprisingly guaranteed him 219 electors), Donald Trump won four swing states – these undecided states likely to switch from one camp to another between each election. And he found himself in the lead in the remaining three.
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If Donald Trump's victory is confirmed in all these states, he would win the election with 309 voters out of 538. That is to say a gap which may seem significant, due to the rule of “winner takes all”. This means that when a candidate wins a state, he wins all the electors of that state, regardless of the vote difference.
A clear victory, to be measured
“In the swing states, Even if it's a little less close than in previous elections, Trump's victories are not overwhelming either.says Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos.
Donald Trump's victory, announced in the first three pivotal states of North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, was decided with a difference of between 2 and 3 percentage points in the votes.
“It’s a pretty clear victory but it’s not a Republican tidal wave either”confirms Charles Voisin, journalist and author specializing in the United States. “Donald Trump did not go so far as to flip Democratic states. »
Counting without blocking
Unlike four years ago, the results from Georgia, for example, also arrived more quickly and with a clearer difference: 50.8% for Donald Trump against 48.5% for Kamala Harris.
In 2020, Joe Biden won this state by a margin of only 0.2 percentage points. The vote was so close that the news agency Associated Press had preferred to play it safe before confirming the results, especially since the Republican candidate was calling it fraud.
That year, the American election was held during the Covid-19 crisis, which had boosted postal voting. However, in Georgia in particular, the electoral rule requires the counting of votes by mail to begin on the day of the election. “So it takes time”explains Charles Voisin. “Early voting or mail-in voting is traditionally more Democratic, so we knew there was a lag and those votes were going to be Democratic. »
The results were therefore initially expected to be red (the color of the Republicans) before sliding towards blue (the color of the Democrats), as the postal votes were counted.
The turnaround in such a close election had fueled accusations of fraud from the Republican camp, forcing caution and even a recount – not to mention its attempts to overturn the results.
Within the margin of error
For the 2024 elections, the vote was expected to be so close that a deadlock scenario could not be ruled out. Donald Trump suggested that he would denounce fraud in the event of defeat, and this before even the vote of 5 November.
Were Trump voters a little underrepresented in the polls? “We are still within the margin of error”defends Charles Voisin. “Are Trump voters picking up pollsters’ phones less? Perhaps because they are anti-system, they do not respond to pollsters. These are possibilities »he continues.
Popular vote results to follow
An extremely close vote was announced with results that would possibly only be confirmed after several days.
According to Mathieu Gallard, the popular vote (that is to say the actual vote of citizens cast for each candidate without taking into account the electors) should also be taken with caution. “There are still a lot of votes to be counted, it will be very close, especially on the West Coast, in states like California, Washington State and Oregon which vote Democratic”he points out, at a time when Donald Trump is in the lead. “Things will perhaps rebalance and it is not excluded that in the end, Kamala Harris will take the lead just like Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Hillary Clinton was 3 million votes ahead in 2016 and that, Kamala Harris won't make it no matter what,” he continues.
If, on the other hand, Donald Trump wins the popular vote, he would be the first Republican candidate to win it in 20 years, and that would strengthen his victory.
