© Jaruwan photo/Adobe Stock
– Bitcoin exceeded the $75,000 mark for the very first time.
The dollar soared on Wednesday while bitcoin rose to a new record, boosted by the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election – the fall of the yen helping to reinvigorate the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Around 04:00 GMT, the greenback climbed 1.62% against the Japanese currency, at 154.07 yen per dollar and appreciated by 1.76% against the common European currency, to 0.9309 euros per dollar. While a feverish wait begins in the United States regarding the outcome of a very close election, the foreign exchange market reacted vigorously to the announcements of the first American states won by former Republican President Donald Trump.
“Markets are starting to bet on Trump's return. He won by a larger margin than expected in Florida, a very populous state, which reinforces expectations of better-than-expected Republican scores elsewhere. in the country, underlined Yugo Tsuboi, strategist at Daiwa Securities, quoted by the Bloomberg agency. The American election fuels a roller coaster in trade: the dollar had fallen significantly the day before after the publication of better polls for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, before experiencing a sudden turnaround in the first polls after the start of the vote.
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A widening of the public deficit?
Economists and investors expect that if successful, Donald Trump will implement new customs barriersreduces taxes and deregulates the economy – enough to cause a widening of the public deficit, then a rise in bond rates and consequently a rise in the dollar. The markets “will adjust on Wednesday as new information becomes available”, insist MUFG analysts. They believe that “the dollar could strengthen by around 7 to 8% compared to the base scenario if Kamala Harris wins.”
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Bitcoin record, the market is counting on regulatory relaxation
Bitcoin surpassed for the first time ever the $75,000 markboosted by the prospect of regulatory relaxation in the event of Donald Trump's victory. After having exceeded its last absolute peak dating back to last March ($73,797.98), the first digital currency by capitalization rose to $75,005 around 03:08 GMT, an increase of some 8%. It then recovered and was trading at $74,421 around 04:00 GMT.
The former president pledged during the campaign to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies” with an extremely relaxed regulatory framework – in contrast to the Biden government, considered to be in favor of strict regulation of the sector. THE “(Trump’s) return to power would likely emphasize deregulation, tax incentives and economic policies favorable to alternative investments, such as bitcoin”estimated before the election Nigel Green, analyst at deVere.
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Tokyo soars in unison with the fall of the yen
A Tokyo vers 03H50 GMT, the Nikkei headline index rose 3.09% to 39,664.53 points, and the broader Topix index rose 2.13% to 2,720.89 points. Already supported by the upward revision of the profit forecasts of a significant number of Japanese companies on the occasion of their quarterly publications, the Tokyo market is watching for information from the United States. The indices rallied against the backdrop of a sharp depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which makes the purchase of Japanese shares more attractive – and lowers the cost of imports for Japanese firms.
“US (bond) yields and US stock market futures climbed”which would also strengthen the Tokyo Stock Exchange, noted broker IwaiCosmo. Thus, the prospect of higher bond yields in the United States has Japanese bank securities jumpwhich could benefit from increased revenues: Mizuho (+4.71%), MUFG (+4.31%) and SMFG (+5.11%) were soaring together. In the defense sector, the Japanese jet champion IHI climbed 13.13%.
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China holds its breath
Conversely, Chinese markets remained dominated by caution: around 04:15 GMT, the Shanghai composite index gained 0.16% to 3,392.36 points, that of Shenzhen 0.57% to 2,059.45 points. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 2.61% to 20,459.26 points. While investors are still waiting for details on Beijing's recovery plans this weekend, the prospect of a possible election of Donald Trump darkens the horizon. “For Asia, a Trump victory would be a game-changer, with a wave of aggressive customs duties (…) China, very vulnerable, could need a rapid devaluation of the yuan to absorb the shock”underlines Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.
