Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? After months of campaigning under very high tension, the time for the verdict in the American presidential election is fast approaching. This Tuesday, November 5, 2024, tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls to choose the future tenant of the White House.
However, the result of the election may not be known for several hours… or even days. The fault lies in a complex vote counting and counting system.
In some states, we vote until late
First, the closing time of polling stations differs from state to state. The first polling stations will close their doors at 6 p.m. local time (midnight here), while some will remain open until 1 a.m. in the United States (7 a.m. in France).
The first estimates should therefore be known around 5 a.m. here, when the majority of offices will have closed.
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The seven swing states these undecided states where the fate of the election will be decided, will be particularly scrutinized. However, if it is only possible to vote until 7 p.m. in Georgia (1 a.m. in Paris), voters will be able to place their ballot in the ballot box until 10 p.m. in Nevada (4 a.m. in Paris) .
The map below summarizes the closing time of polling stations in the 50 American states, as well as the percentage of ballots that had been counted by noon local time (6 p.m. in Paris) during the previous election, in 2020:
The weight of postal votes
Another factor that influences the delay before knowing the official result of the election: the counting procedures which, again, are specific to each state. Some are more complex than others and therefore take more time.
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Counting mail-in votes, in particular, can significantly extend counting time: in some states, such as Pennsylvania, they are only counted at the same time as ballots cast in ballot boxes on Election Day , specifies New York Times .
According to the latest figures, more than 78 million American voters have already cast their ballots, including Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Close election, delayed result
An election that is decided by a few votes can also increase the delay before the official proclamation of the results. In some states, candidates can request a recount when the gap with their opponent is small. What Donald Trump did not hesitate to do in 2020, in the states narrowly won by his opponent, Joe Biden.
In other states, this procedure is even automatic below a certain threshold. Thus, in Arizona, the recount is carried out automatically if the difference between the two candidates is less than 0.5% of voters, recalls the New York Times.
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However, it is rather this scenario that seems to be emerging at the moment: according to a latest survey carried out by Ipsos for the press agency Reutersthe gap between voting intentions for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is only 1%.
The hypothesis of perfect equality
And we are not even talking here about the case where the two candidates arrive from the same : it would then be up to the House of Representatives to designate the winner of the vote, which would lengthen the procedure even more.
An almost unique case in history, since it has not occurred since the election of… 1800! At the time, it took around thirty rounds of voting to decide between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. The first was declared the winner.
More than a month of waiting in 2000
Whatever the scenario, it is therefore very unlikely that the final result of the 2024 presidential election will be known as of Wednesday, November 6. For comparison, four years ago, Joe Biden was only officially declared the winner four days after the vote. A result that his then opponent, Donald Trump, never recognized.
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Even worse in 2000: the winner was declared 36 days after the election. The fault lies in the multiple appeals filed by Democrat Al Gore against the victory of his opponent, George W. Bush. It was the Supreme Court which ruled in favor of the Republican candidate.
Results until November 8 or 9?
Conversely, in 2016, the identity of the new president was known quite quickly: Donald Trump was declared the winner around 3 a.m. in the United States (9 a.m. in France), recalls the BBC .
Kamala Harris's entourage itself warned that it will be necessary to wait “several days” before knowing the results, fearing possible appeals from Donald Trump against the vote.
The chair of the Democratic candidate's campaign, Jen O'Malley Dillon, estimates that the results will range from “end of the night”between Tuesday and Wednesday, until November 8 or 9 for Nevada and Pennsylvania, the most crucial northeastern state in the presidential election.
And then, what will be the next steps?
And even once the verdict of the polls is made final, there will still be a long way to go before we see one or the other candidate take up residence in the White House.
The electors of each state will meet on December 17 to confirm the election of the 47e President of the United States and his vice-president.
Then, the vote will be certified by the members of the House of Representatives and the Senate meeting in Congress on January 6, at the Capitol in Washington. It was on this day that supporters of Donald Trump invaded the building, in 2021, to contest the election result.
Finally, the President of the United States and her Vice President will take the oath of office on January 20, during theInauguration Daythe date on which the presidential term officially begins, at noon Washington time.
