Sunday Football Tips: Back 4/1 Bet Builder at Old Trafford

Casemiro: Producing plenty of shots and in amongst the goals of late

Manchester United v ChelseaSunday 3 November, 16:30Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

The appointment of a new manager often results in an uptick in performance, even if that is simply a bit more effort.

I’d expect the arrival of a strong Chelsea side at Old Trafford to elicit a response from the home players, who must now look to impress Ruben Amorim, who will leave Sporting Lisbon and take over during this month’s international break.

That extra urgency could well result in fouls and shots numbers for United being pushed up and that’s the route I’m looking to take in terms of a props Bet Builder.

Let’s start with Casemiro, a player who was trusted by interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy in midweek, and one who rewarded him with two goals against Leicester – he now has three in his last two games.

More pertinently for our bet, the Brazilian has landed the 2+ shots bets in seven of his last eight United starts and that duly makes the betslip.

The last three meetings of these two have produced 15 goals with shot numbers also very healthy – there were 47 at Stamford Bridge last season and more than 30 in the other two matches in that series.

United have also committed at least 12 fouls in all of those games.

Casemiro may well be one of those who helps bump up the foul count in this one, especially with Cole Palmer operating in his area of the pitch.

We pointed out Palmer’s ability to draw fouls in a recent column, while my colleague Lewis Jones highlighted his betting potential earlier this week too. Punters have taken note of his wise words too, pushing Palmer’s price down, but it’s still good enough for me.

The England star has been fouled 3+ times in five of his last six matches as he increasingly becomes Chelsea’s biggest attacking threat.

A repeat is offered at 11/4 but I’m going to take the safer option of backing him to draw 2+ fouls at 10/11.

Finally, let’s back Matthijs de Ligt to commit 1+ foul.

It hasn’t been the easiest of transitions for the Dutchman to the Premier League and he’s now committed a foul in seven of his last eight starts.

There is plenty of threat in a Chelsea front line which will look to get in behind – think Nicolas Jackson and Palmer himself – so it should be a testing afternoon for the centre-back.

While on the subject of fouls, it’s worth highlighting the fact referee Rob Jones is averaging 24.33 fouls per game this season (the league average is 22.77). If six games is too small a sample for you, he was also more than one foul per game above the average last season too.

Back Casemiro 2+ shots, Cole Palmer to be fouled 2+ times & Matthijs de Light to commit 1+ foul @ around 4/1

Staked: 111pts Returned: 130.32pts P/L: +19.32pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts