According to polls, the far-right movement of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) could come out on top in the national elections on Sunday September 29, neck and neck with the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). But it will be complicated for him to win the Chancellery.
The FPÖ (Patriots for Europe) has already been part of government coalitions at regional and national levels, but has never won a national election nor seen one of its members occupy the post of chancellor — which could change following the elections on Sunday September 29.
“We listen carefully to people. We don’t change our minds every day,” underlines FPÖ MEP Elisabeth Dieringer for Euractiv, who is delighted with her party’s good projections in the polls. “That’s why we reach people’s hearts.”
During the European elections in June, the FPÖ had already come first with 25.4% of the votes, narrowly ahead of the ÖVP (European People’s Party/EPP) which had obtained 24.52% of the votes.
The FPÖ has been striving since 2019 to restore its image, under the leadership of Herbert Kickl. The reputation of the movement had been seriously damaged, following the involvement of the former leader of the FPÖ and former vice-chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache in the “Ibiza affair”. This led to the collapse of the government of the time – a coalition formed with the ÖVP of Sebastian Kurz.
Last week, the electoral campaign was turned upside down by the dramatic consequences of Storm Boris on Central Europe, which put climate and environment issues back on the agenda.
“Before this, these issues were not really debated during the campaign. Now it is”explains environmentalist MEP Thomas Waitz to Euractiv, adding that “this demobilizes far-right voters.”
Expected coalition formations
Given the fragmentation of the Austrian political landscape, the FPÖ must obtain a majority of 50% + 1 to govern. In other words, the party will have to form a coalition with at least one other party to obtain the necessary majority — which should be complicated.
The latest polls indicate that Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Christian Democratic Party (ÖVP) is poised to become the kingmaker of the future coalition.
Indeed, this movement could choose to form a coalition with the Freedom Party (FPÖ) or align with the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and a smaller party, such as the Greens or the liberal NEOS party.
“For us, social democrats, one thing is clear, no coalition with the extreme right”explained SPÖ MEP Andreas Schieder (S&D) to Euractiv.
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Alexander Van der Bellen, an obstacle to the chancellorship
Obtaining the chancellorship could therefore prove difficult for FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. According to the Austrian Constitution, it is up to the president and former leader of the Greens, Alexander Van der Bellen, to approve the appointments of chancellor, vice-chancellor and ministers.
“The Austrian president is very powerful”underlines Reinhard Heinisch, professor of comparative Austrian politics at the University of Salzburg. “He can veto any conservative without having to justify himself to anyone. »
In a statement last year, the Austrian president indicated that he would not swear in someone who “trying to promote an anti-European party, a party that does not condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine” — qualifiers which undoubtedly apply to Herbert Kickl’s movement.
“I am absolutely certain that the leader of the Freedom Party will not be able to form a government because he will not find a majority in Parliament”supports ÖVP MEP Lukas Mandl (PPE) for Euractiv.
A violation of the constitution?
In an interview given to The pressFPÖ leader Herbert Kickl said the possibility of being denied the opportunity to form a government would constitute a “violation of the Constitution”.
“If the FPÖ comes out on top, it will have the right to start negotiations to form a government. But that doesn’t mean they have the right to form one.”explains Professor Reinhard Heinisch.
“It’s not up to us. This is what I call democracy, and it is the people who elect”declared FPÖ MEP Elisabeth Dieringer, adding that “it’s not him who makes himself chancellor, it’s the Austrian population.”
In 2000, EU member states suspended bilateral relations with Austria following the entry of the FPÖ into the government coalition, alongside the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). On the other hand, this was not the case when the FPÖ rejoined the government in 2019.
“I don’t expect any reactions from the EU. It’s quite the opposite. There will be a very strong silence”assures Green MEP Thomas Waitz.
[Édité par Anna Martino]