Very clever who can predict the result of the American presidential election, a little over a month before the vote. The latest polls show Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump neck and neck. An uncertainty which further reinforces the weight of swings statesthese states where the election is really being played out.
A system that places “pivot states” at the center of the game
To understand the crucial role of swing statesor “pivotal states”, you must first be familiar with the presidential voting method in the United States. Across the Atlantic, citizens do not vote directly for a candidate, but for electors, responsible for choosing the winner.
Each federal state has a number of electors, which depends on its population. In almost all states, it is the rule of winner takes all which applies: all the electoral votes are allocated to the candidate who obtains the majority of votes. In Nebraska and Maine, on the other hand, the electors are designated by proportional representation. As there are a total of 540 electors, a candidate must win more than 270 to win the election.
In many states, there is no real suspense. For example, California, New York State and Washington State are largely won over to the Democratic cause and should give all their voters to Kamala Harris. Conversely, the Republican base is very solid in the center of the country, such as in Kansas.
All eyes are on Pennsylvania
There are, however, a few states where the outcome of the election is difficult to predict and varies from ballot to ballot, because the votes are so close: these are the swing states. They are of particular importance because they make it possible to swing the election in favor of one camp or the other. Reason why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are increasing their trips there.
For the 2024 presidential election, the New York Times and poll aggregator 270towin estimate that there are seven swing states. According to several experts, it is the vote of Pennsylvania voters which should be the most decisive. Not only because this state has a significant number of electors, but also because inflation has been particularly high there. Since 2000, the votes there have been rather favorable to the Democrats. Except for 2016, where Trump won.
Same observation in Michigan, which has always placed the Democrats in the lead in six elections, except in 2016. But the large Arab-American population living in this state could this time not give its vote to the “blue camp”, without however giving it to the “reds”, because of its support for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Will Georgia still be debated?
Among the pivotal states, we also find Georgia, which leaned more in favor of the Republicans… Until 2020, when the surprise victory of Joe Biden in this state had tipped the election, to the great displeasure of Donald Trump. A new defeat for the Republican in the Peanut State could cost him dearly.
The billionaire has more chances of winning back the voters of North Carolina, but the latest polls show significant momentum in favor of Kamala Harris. Should we see this as a reaction to the scandals affecting Mark Robinson, the candidate for governor supported by Donald Trump? In any case, a victory for the Democratic camp in this state would be a big blow: the last time this happened was in 2008 with Barack Obama.
Democrats and Republicans alike are also closely watching Wisconsin, which was also crucial in the election of Joe Biden four years ago. Proof that the votes are very close: the American president won with less than 21,000 votes ahead of his rival in 2020.
Reach the magic number
Finally, in the West, Arizona and Nevada are also considered pivotal states. In the first, it is the theme of abortion which could prove decisive. In the second, it will be more for the candidates to convince the Latino electorate.
In total, according to New York Times and the 270towin site, Kamala Harris will need to obtain 44 electoral votes in the swing states to win the election, compared to 51 for Donald Trump.
Which seems playable for the vice-president: according to the polls of the American daily, she is slightly in the lead in Pennsylvania (19 voters), in Michigan (15) and in Wisconsin (10). For his part, the Republican is also counting on Pennsylvania, North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) to get re-elected.
