Has the AI sector just reached a plateau? In any case, this is what a new article published by the media suggests The Information. According to our colleagues, Orion, which is to succeed GPT-4 at OpenAI in 2025, has only demonstrated a limited improvement, according to statements from employees who were able to try it. The change would thus be less marked than during the transition between GPT-3 and GPT-4. Let's take stock.
Disappointing results?
As a reminder, an OpenAI manager had sold dreams on Orion by affirming that the latter was potentially up to 100 times more powerful than GPT-4. We would be very far from it if the investigation by the American site is to be believed. Thus, some employees of the technology company believe that the language model is “not not reliably better than its predecessor in accomplishing and managing certain tasks”.
The article cites in particular coding, which would be one of the weak points. The same would apply to the linguistic skills of the AI. On the other hand, Orion would show progress for text synthesis and rewriting.
It appears that OpenAI lacks high-quality data to train its technology, and this is the crux of the matter. This is also why the company is increasing its agreements with certain platforms to access information.
A bright future or a milestone already achieved?
Ion Stoica, co-founder and executive chairman of enterprise software company Databricks, told The Information : “For questions of general knowledge, we could say that, for the moment, we are witnessing a plateau in the performance of LLMs (Large language models such as ChatGPT Editor’s note) ».
Some critics of the current frenzy around AI are blunt. Quoted by Business InsiderGuy Marcus, professor emeritus at New York University, asserts that these tools show signs of “diminishing returns”.
Other leaders, on the contrary, refuse to be defeated. No doubt also because they have a lot to lose. This is the case of Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, who continues to prophesy a future where AI would become central to our lives after colossal progress.
For his part, Microsoft technical director Kevin Scott estimated last July: “Despite what some observers think, we are not seeing a drop in yields in the event of a change”.
For the moment, it is of course impossible to decide, and only the future will tell us how these technologies will evolve. To find out more about Orion, we advise you to re-read our previous article here.
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