Raise your hand if you’ve already buried the Oilers heading into Game 4 of the final series.
OK, you can all put your hands down now. I can not see anymore.
Instead, I will ask the question in another form. Actually, I’m going to ask it the other way around: raise your hand if you predicted an Oilers victory by seven goals in the match #4.
Do not be shy…
Person ?
That’s what I thought. No one in Canada – and in the United States – has dared to speculate on such a scenario. A little $100 on the odds Oilers by 6.5 goals could have made me rich!
Let’s make them talk stats
This morning, after four games of the final series of the Cut contested, the Panthers scored 12 goals and the Oilers, 12 too. If you were in the Maldives in Cayo Coco and your Internet connection was as fast as the service at thecar of Tim around the corner from us, you might think the series is equal 2 – 2, gender…
Especially since the Oilers scored 12 goals against a goalie, while the Panthers only beat a goalie ten times. They scored two empty-net goals… which means the Oilers’ goaltending was better than the Panthers’ goaltending, based on pure stats alone.
But no ! It’s the Panthers who are up 3 to 1 in the series… Sergei “MVP” Bobrovsky was better than Stuart Skinner… and these are the panthers who will try to win the Stanley Cup tomorrow night in Florida, not the other way around. Scoring all your goals on the same night doesn’t give you more points or advantages in the end! On the contrary !
What happened Saturday evening?
Many wonder how the Panthers could have crashed so much on Saturday in Edmonton.
Several things can explain this poor Florida performance.
1. The Oilers – especially their best players – have finally found a way to produce at five-on-five. Seven of the Oilers’ eight goals came at even strength on Saturday.
The two-headed monster, which I believe was responsible for the deficit 0 – 3 after three games, regained all his power: Connor McDavid obtained four points and Leon Draisaitl, two. McDavid scored his first goal of the series… while we’re still waiting for Leon’s first, but hey.
The Oilers’ best players were (finally) better than those of the Panthers on Saturday night. That’s it.
2. Sergei Bobrovsky was smoking hot through the first three games of the final series, but on Saturday he became the Bob from the COVID years. If he hadn’t been so extraordinary during the first games of the series, it wouldn’t be 3 to 1 for the Panthers. Unfortunately for the Oilers, Bobrovsky rarely delivers two poor performances in a row playoffs.
3. The Panthers players had given up in the middle of the game. At 5 to 1, they already had the lead in match #5. The three goals scored subsequently don’t mean much.
4. Darnell Nurse (finally) offered a performance worthy of the salary for which he is paid. It was the first time he finished a match at plus-2 or better (plus-3) since the start of the series.
5. Subconsciously, the Oilers players wanted it more than those of the Panthers. They wanted to avoid humiliation in front of their fans (like the Canadian during game #4 at the Bell Center in 2021). The Panthers knew that if they couldn’t closer This Saturday, they were going to have three more chances to do it… including the next one in Miami, in front of their fans. There was no rush, like. #EmergencyFeeling
Georges Laraque confided two weeks ago that the nightlife was really not top in Edmonton. Why celebrate the Cup there when you play in Florida and you can do it in Miami three days later, in front of your fans too?
Honestly, I’m pretty convinced that the Panthers will finish the job tomorrow night at Sunrise. Not having evenly distributed offensive production will haunt the Oilers forwards (and Evan Bouchard). #WorstStrategies #NotPlannedSo
Several stars will be present at the Amerant Bank Arena tomorrow night and even if the fourth game is always the hardest to get, Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Evan Rodrigues, Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad and company will find a way to win tomorrow. #BigParty
But if the Oilers were to manage to win a second consecutive game…
And that they force a game #6 to be held in front of their fans in Edmonton. It would start to get really stressful for the Panthers…
In closing, I return to my initial fact: the Oilers and the Panthers have each scored as many goals since the start of the Stanley Cup Final…and the Oilers have two more against a goalie than the Panthers. Yet another proof that statistics can say almost anything, especially when the sample is small.
Beware! There is always a context, additional data and/or the famous eye test to complete what a statistic can a priori try to say…
A lot of
– Coccaro ALL to become a mega-star to Montreal. His intensity and determination when he entered on Saturday… his character happy…he just needs to stay healthy and put it in a few times at home and boom!
– Luca Saputo was present at Stade Saputo on Saturday evening.
– I don’t think Rory slept well last night…
