This week, RDS.ca continues its overview of the trends that are emerging as the “draft season” begins. The idea here is to better understand popular sentiment and to better exploit certain perceived flaws before the start of the NHL regular season.
Note that it is best to use these tips in conjunction with the specifics of your fantasy hockey league. For example, some pools only track points, while others factor in specific categories like shots on goal, blocked shots, body checks, and +/- differential to build a standings (commonly referred to as a league by category or rotisserie).
After 5 names to be drafted, here are 5 names that I expect to see very little, if at all, in my various pools, based on their current selection rank.
In order to reach as many poolers as possible, note that the average selection rank (Average Draft Position Or ADP) is based on data provided by the platform Yahoo!.
1. JT Miller, C – Vancouver Canucks
ADP Yahoo!: 12.6
You could easily throw in one of Miller’s linemates, Brock Boeser (65.5 ADP), who not only poses a risk of a decline in his production rate, but will report to training camp just months after doctors diagnosed him with a blood clot problem in his leg.
Miller has been remarkably consistent since joining Vancouver in 2019. The 30-goal, 85-point mark seems very attainable again for the American center. I’m looking for more from a late first-round pick, though. Absolutely everything has gone well for the Canucks’ power play in 2023-24, and I expect a near-inevitable statistical decline, even if the power play were to retain its credentials.
What are the alternatives to Miller when you inherit a pick around 12th? Well, in the vast majority of drafts listed on Yahoo!, Jack Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov and William Nylander are all available around the turn of the first and second rounds. You want to convince me that three of these four players will flirt with or surpass 100 points in 2024-25… I will tell you that Miller is probably the outcast in this group.
Unless Miller slides to the end of the second round, I won’t be clicking on his name this draft season. Let me just say it now: see you next year, JT!
2. Joseph Woll, G – Toronto Maple Leafs
ADP Yahoo!: 79.1
If I’m going to invest a goalie pick around the 7th round, I’ll have to be confident that the volume of starts will be there. There are too many good skaters left in the draft at this point to go for a “1A-1B tandem” scenario, which could very well be the distribution of work Craig Berube prefers with the presence of Anthony Stolarz.
There’s no denying that Woll did a great job of stealing the No. 1 goalie role from an underachieving Ilya Samsonov last year. But what if Berube suddenly asks him to start 55 goals in 2024-25? Will his consistent performance be affected?
There’s an element of uncertainty that doesn’t thrill me about Woll, as does the fact that the Leafs have played back-to-back games 16 times, tied for the most in the NHL. That statistic carries weight because it makes it less plausible that Woll gives his draftees multiple weeks of elite NHL goaltending.
3. MacKenzie Weegar, D – Calgary Flames
ADP Yahoo!: 84.7
Only four defensemen have scored 20 goals in 2023-24 in the Bettman league: Cale Makar, Roman Josi, Rasmus Dahlin and… MacKenzie Weegar. It’s an ultra-select group as you can see, and a nice feat for the Flames’ rearguard, albeit an unexpected one, as he entered his 30s.
You know who in this group has shattered his previous NHL record by 12 goals? Well, yes, it’s Weegar, who had never before scored more than eight goals in a season. Has he found an offensive touch that will remain intact for a few more seasons? I choose to doubt it, especially on an Alberta strike force that could easily be in the bottom third of the league.
The selection spot he’s being offered this fall requires a lot of faith in a defenseman known for his overall game more than his offensive prowess. It’s a shortcut to believe that because Noah Hanifin was traded to Vegas, Weegar is automatically the guy Ryan Huska will deploy on the point of the first power play. Rasmus Andersson is still there, and Calgary also wants to see what Daniil Miromanov, an offensive-minded defenseman, can offer.
4. Owen Tippett, AD – Philadelphia Flyers
ADP Yahoo!: 82.4
Tippett’s middling selection rank is likely due to the high volume of shots on net and bodychecks that poolers have come to expect from him. If your league takes these categories into account, the Philadelphia right winger gains value and adds a safety element. In a pool that doesn’t tend to reward these two statistical columns, Tippett should be out of the discussion for a 7th round pick like he is on Yahoo!
The former 10th overall pick has found his niche with the Flyers after back-to-back seasons of 49 (27-22) and 53 points (28-25). Anyone who has ever seen him take a run-up along the boards has surely appreciated his acceleration, which is among the best in the Bettman circuit. Except that aesthetic points don’t give much to poolers, who would be wise not to give up on forwards who have proven more than Tippett at this point in the draft.
5. Gustav Forsling, D – Florida Panthers
ADP Yahoo!: 88.8
Forsling’s rise to prominence in Sunrise since the Carolina Hurricanes foolishly placed him on waivers in January 2021 has been one of the great stories of the past few seasons.
To reach such a high level of play in the span of three years after being offered to the other 31 teams is exceptional in itself. Forsling has become indispensable to the Panthers’ defensive unit, and as much as the departure of Brandon Montour to free agency will be felt, it is largely due to the Swede’s emergence that the defending champions can even hope to get away with it in 2024-25 without too much of a hit.
After this preamble and the flowers thrown at Forsling, I have no choice but to add that the offensive ceiling of the new No. 1 rearguard of the Panthers is not unlimited either. What makes him so crucial in the equation in Florida is precisely the fact that he is so complete. Montour may be gone, it would be surprising if Forsling played 90 seconds a night on the power play in addition to his other responsibilities. It would not be a judicious use of his talent.
Aaron Ekblad and newcomer Adam Boqvist are viable options on the offensive side of the game for Maurice and the Panthers. The veteran coach needs to trust both of those players on the power play, or Forsling will be overwhelmed sooner or later. The state of the Panthers’ defensive corps is too fragile to take such a risk, just a few months after playing until July.
In short, fantasy-wise, is Forsling a sure bet for a 10-goal season and somewhere between 40 and 45 points? Definitely. But so are many defensemen who find buyers beyond the top-100, and pool players would do well to take note.
){kind=link}