The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has predicted that global oil demand will continue to grow “at least” until 2050, describing the exit from fossil fuels as “a fantasy”.
According to the 2024 edition of its report on the outlook for global oil demand, OPEC sees demand increasing by 17% between 2023 and 2050, from 102.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 120.1 mb/d at the end of the period.
The organization is revising its projection for 2045 significantly upwards to 118.9 mb/d compared to 116 mb/d in the previous edition of its report on the outlook for global oil demand, the latest version of which has been unveiled Tuesday.
“These forecasts underline that the fantasy of the gradual exit from oil and gas is not consistent with reality,” underlines OPEC, estimating that the growth in oil demand will be driven mainly by non-OECD countries, in first place. including India, while it will decline from 2030 among OECD countries (mainly developed countries). India alone would see its demand increase by 8 mb/d over 2023-2050.
Among the main factors supporting this demand for oil and energy in general, the increase in the world population, which would increase from some 8 billion inhabitants today to 9.7 billion by 2050, a growth again driven by countries outside the OECD, particularly in Africa and Asia.
From a sector perspective, “the highest incremental demand during the forecast period is forecast for the petrochemicals, road transportation and aviation sectors,” the report said.
“Thermal vehicles should continue to dominate”
Despite a rise in electric cars, OPEC believes that thermal vehicles “should continue to dominate road transport”.
OPEC highlights several “obstacles” to the development of electric vehicles: electricity networks, battery manufacturing capacity and access to essential minerals.
The organization also expects “pressure”, both from political decision-makers and populations, on ambitions that are “too high” in terms of the deployment of renewable energies or electric vehicles.
These forecasts come the day after the announcement of 1,600 job cuts within the Swedish battery giant Northvolt, in particular due to the slowdown in demand.
In order to satisfy the growing demand for crude oil, OPEC estimates the cumulative investments needed for the sector to be more than $17,000 billion, or some $640 billion per year on average by 2050, mainly in the exploration and production of black gold.
