Forget the eternal “We must win Ontario” or “We must win Quebec”. Whoever wins in the suburbs wins the federal election. This is the thesis defended by one of the main pollsters in the country.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
“Canadian population growth is occurring in drive-through suburbs. This is where immigrants settle. The suburbs have a younger population, more births,” Darrell Bricker, president and CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, recently wrote on X. “The key to victory now is all-drive suburbs. Those who win on this ground win elections. »
This analysis grid, which is gaining popularity in the country, can help us understand certain political dynamics. The attacks by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) against the orange taxes of Québec Solidaire (QS) were particularly relevant in the last elections. Remember that the left party proposed taxing energy-intensive vehicles.
The example of the third link
Last week, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced that he would not invest “a cent of federal money in a tramway project in Quebec.” “Trudeau and the Bloc are obsessed with the car war and ignore people in the suburbs and regions,” he added.
PHOTO JUSTIN TANG, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre
“Common-sense conservatives will continue to respect Quebec motorists by supporting a third link for cars,” insisted Mr. Poilievre, regarding the controversial interrives highway project that CDPQ Infra experts recommended against the government.
For Gérard Beaudet, the theme of the third link perfectly illustrates the growing political weight of the suburbs.
The third link is perhaps the best example of this political calculation where, against all odds, even if no expert supported this project, we still persisted.
Gérard Beaudet, professor of urban planning at the University of Montreal
Unsurprisingly, the car theme sticks to the suburbs. “If you live in the suburbs, because of the way the suburbs were designed, you have to be pro-car. No one can move there without them. There is no choice. There, we are trying to add choices in the suburbs, but it is a long and very inefficient process,” notes professor of urban planning at Queen’s University David Gordon.
Professor Gordon sums up the Canadian political landscape this way: “If the suburbs vote with the rural areas, then the Conservatives win. If the suburbs vote with the heart of the cities, then the liberals win. »
Generally speaking, Mr. Gordon believes that “politicians who can divide suburban and urban voters will have a substantial majority in the election.”
For example, it is reasonable to wonder whether the recent quarrel between city mayors and the Legault government over the financing of public transport would not specifically serve the CAQ. Calling mayors “beggars” is a mistake or a profitable move?
