In January 2017, Donald Trump's arrival at the White House was marked by the exit from the Paris climate agreement and by the travel ban, the “ban on entry” into American territory for nationals of several Muslim-majority countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen). In January 2025, for his return, two major measures are to be expected immediately: the establishment of additional customs duties on imports and the mass expulsion of migrants without regular residence permits in the United States. As in 2017, the goal will be to shock, to hurt and to act within the framework of the prerogatives conferred on the President of the United States. Too bad if the courts interfere in the matter.
Regarding customs duties, the president has the right to impose them. The days when this prerogative was the sole purview of Congress are decades gone. Donald Trump has proposed taxing all imports at least 10%, while those from China would be subject to a 60% tax. Before the vote, French luxury companies made efforts to contact the Trump team to avoid such sanctions. No one knows if the 10% amount will be applied. No one knows if Canada and Mexico, linked with the United States by a free trade agreement revisited under Donald Trump, will be affected. No one knows whether China will receive as high a sanction as promised. But no one doubts that Donald Trump will take action, if only to maintain his credibility.
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“Donald Trump will impose certain tariffs on day one. Not 100%, but it's in his interest to activate a serious threat to make it credible. And the more people say it's a negotiating posture, the more he'll have to do it. Otherwise, he will appear weak, indecisive and a liar.”deciphered before the election Adam Posen, president of the transatlantic think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), recalling that Trump's threat concerns much greater amounts than during his previous mandate. This policy could be implemented by Republican protectionist Robert Lighthizer, trade representative during Trump's first term.
What reaction will America’s partners have?
According to a study by Mary Lovely and Kimberly Clausing, researchers at PIIE, these customs duties would hit the equivalent of around 11% of American gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 1.8% during the first trade war. These measures would disrupt production chains. They would result in a financial transfer from the poor to the rich, with the former purchasing more imported goods as a percentage of their income. The purchasing power of the poorest 20% of Americans would decline by 4.2%, while that of median-income households would decline by 2.7%. At the same time, Donald Trump should reduce antitrust measures and tackle the repeated fines imposed by the European Union on large tech companies. In any case, Tim Cook, the president of Apple, complained about it during the electoral campaign to the Republican candidate.
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