The election Wednesday to the White House of Donald Trump, openly climate skeptic and pro-oil, will mark a 180-degree turn in the environmental and climate policy of the United States, the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
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The Republican promised during his campaign to “drill at all costs” and openly questioned the reality of climate change, contrary to the energy transition policy initiated by his predecessor Joe Biden.
“We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia or Russia,” the tycoon said in his victory speech, referring to oil and gas.
His victory will undoubtedly lead to a disengagement of the United States from climate diplomacy. Immediate consequence, without even waiting for his inauguration in January: the voice of American negotiators at COP29, which opens Monday in Azerbaijan, will be weakened.
During his first term, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement. He will be able to start again as soon as he enters the White House on January 20, which will make the withdrawal effective one year later . After the first effective withdrawal only in November 2020 for procedural reasons, Joe Biden rejoined the agreement in January 2021.
However, it is within the framework of this agreement that the United States committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, compared to 2005. In 2023, this reduction was at 18%, according to the Rhodium Group research center.
For all experts, this objective will move away with the victory of Donald Trump. With an impact on global warming.
“It’s more serious than in 2016,” Laurence Tubiana, architect of the Paris agreement, told AFP. “It will take unprecedented mobilization so that the shock of the American decision does not impact other countries that have become reluctant to accelerate action,” according to her, calling on Europe to commit even more.
Scientist Johan Rockström, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), is concerned about “a four-year break that we cannot afford during this critical decade “.
An analysis by the specialized media Carbon Brief in March estimated that a victory for Donald Trump could lead to the additional emissions, by 2030, of 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent compared to the Democrats – or the annual emissions of Europe and Japan. Which would have a direct translation in the level of warming.
The Democratic vice-president had supported in 2022 the adoption of the “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA), a law providing for massive investments for the energy transition, with financing for renewable energies or even credits. taxes for buyers of electric vehicles.
Revoked standards
Donald Trump said he would “cancel all unspent funds” from the IRA.
Other promises from Donald Trump: cancel Joe Biden’s moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals or even “the obligation to purchase electric vehicles”.
A reference to new car emissions regulations aimed at accelerating the switch to electric – without imposing it.
Other recent standards, notably on limits on CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, could be overturned without even having to go through the US Congress.
But these proceedings will also take time — at least months, if not longer, knowing that they will likely be fought in court.
The future of the planet, however, was far from the focus of the campaign, even as the country was hit by deadly hurricanes, the power of which was exacerbated by overheated seas.
If the Republican proclaimed himself an “ecologist”, in the last days of the campaign, he also reaffirmed that the problem of climate change did not exist: “It is not a question of global warming, because at certain times , the temperature is starting to drop a little, like today.”
