The return of the old parties

Let those who claim to have predicted it raise their hands so that the length of their noses can be measured. Against all expectations, this parliamentary session marked the return of the old parties.

The Parti Québécois dominates and the Liberal Party is once again surviving.

The numbers speak for themselves.

In the 2022 elections, the PQ received 14% of the votes. In the fall of 2023, he obtained more than 20%. At the start of 2024, it exceeded 30%. And as summer begins, he remains at the top.

As for the Liberals, their increase is very modest. But the leadership race, which begins next fall, could provide a small boost. Enough to reconquer old fortified castles in Outaouais and Estrie, which had passed to the CAQ. This division of seats will not displease the PQ.

The liberals are banking on the return of the debate on independence to repatriate the federalists, while the PQ want to bring back those who dream of the country’s project. For the CAQ, bleeding is done on both sides.

It remains to be seen whether the PQ has not risen too high, too quickly. The pressure will be great. For the moment, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is holding on, despite his very small team.

The gap is striking between the popularity of the PQ and its parliamentary means. In the National Assembly, there are only four deputies. They are given only one question per day at the Bleu salon. They have three times less money than the solidarity and six times less than the liberals. They therefore have fewer researchers and advisors. They cannot think deeply about every subject. They have to refuse interview requests. They also struggle to meet all the interest groups.

In short, in Quebec, their little team is burned. Particularly the chef who has three young children.

But the party dominates in popular financing. He no longer has debts and his new residence in Hochelaga costs him less. This allows it to launch ads and slowly prepare for the next campaign.

To those who accuse him of not dealing with everyday problems, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon responds that he also prioritizes concrete battles such as the fight against screens.

The fact remains that the more time advances, the more difficult the PQ’s work will be.

The leader could ride on dissatisfaction with the CAQ government to take power. But he does not want to govern a province. Inspired by Scotland, he will present a long document to answer all the specific questions about his country project.

His federalist adversaries are eager. They will rely on fear of independence, but also on fear of the consequences of defeat, or quite simply on weariness with this debate.

The 11 billion deficit in the last budget created an opportunity for the PLQ. No party defended fiscal conservatism.

The Liberals want to talk about productivity, a dry but important subject. However, they would benefit from having a leader who masters these issues. Their economics spokesperson, Frédéric Beauchemin, has experience as a former executive at Scotiabank, but he stands out above all for his hyperpartisan tone.

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One of their best moments of the session came when their deputy André Fortin destabilized the Minister of Health by demonstrating that it was an almost impossible mission to obtain an appointment with a general practitioner.

The deputies Marwah Rizqy and Monsef Derraji have become safe values, and new faces are gaining ground, like Virginie Dufour and the young Madwa-Nika Cadet.

In the current five-party configuration, the Liberals also benefit from the voting system. In 2022, barely a percentage point separated them from the PQ, Solidarity and Conservatives. The distribution of seats: 21 for the PLQ, 11 for QS, 3 for the PQ and 0 for the PCQ…

Québec solidaire was hit by the resounding resignation of its co-spokesperson Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Ruba Ghazal is expected to contest for the post. The party would now be represented by two Montrealers. This will not facilitate the reconquest of regions where the left party lost support in 2022.

A big debate is brewing internally with the updating of the program and the drafting of the next platform.

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Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois would like QS to shed the most doctrinaire, inapplicable and unsellable aspects of its program. To accept these compromises, members will want to feel like they are moving closer to power.

The parliamentary wing declared victory when the CAQ government made an about-face to adopt a three-year moratorium on housing evictions. These concrete gains show the importance of the work of deputies, who relay social movements to the National Assembly.

But if the polls do not change, activists could say to themselves that as long as they are condemned to the opposition, it is better to defend all of their ideals there. And it is not the old parties who will complain about it.