(Washington) Millions of Americans head to the polls Tuesday, as the chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided country, where voters in just a few key states will choose which path the entire country takes.
Posted at 6:21 a.m.
Kelly Geraldine Malone
The Canadian Press
Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, have presented starkly different visions of the future of the United States, but polls suggest that the two House challengers- White remains neck and neck.
Even if the election takes place south of the border, it will be closely followed from one end of Canada to the other.
“Any election in the United States is important and has an impact for us,” said Canadian Ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman.
“They are at the heart of our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner. »
Mme Hillman traveled across the United States meeting with key members of the Republican and Democratic teams to prepare for any eventuality. On Tuesday evening, after her embassy duties are over, she will watch the results with her husband and friends — probably over pizza.
Although this evening with his loved ones may bring him comfort amidst the anxious wait, Mme Hillman knows better than anyone the immense issues on the table for Canada.
“The person sitting behind the Oval Office and the people who sit in Congress make decisions that can affect Canada. They can offer us opportunities, but also pose challenges for us,” recalled M.me Hillman.
“You have to be ready for both. »
The return of protectionism
Despite long-standing collaboration and a shared border of 8,891 kilometers, Canada could face backlash no matter who wins Tuesday’s election, as both candidates have pushed protectionist policies.
Experts warn, however, that if the Republican candidate wins, relations between the two countries could be much more difficult.
“Mr. Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former Trade Representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to go after Canada,” said Professor Fen Hampson, who teaches international affairs at the Carleton University, in Ottawa.
The first Trump administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada is to the whims of the United States, notably when the former president abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The negotiation of its successor, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Mr. Trump’s victory. Whoever is elected to the White House this week will be in charge when the deal is revised in 2026.
The 10% across-the-board tariff proposed by Mr. Trump is a source of concern in Canada and around the world. A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggests that these tariffs would negatively affect the Canadian economy, resulting in economic costs of approximately $30 billion per year.
U.S. economists have warned that Mr. Trump’s plan could cause inflation, and perhaps a recession, which would almost certainly have repercussions in Canada. More than 77% of Canadian exports go to the United States and trade represents 60% of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP).
“When the American economy is growing, it’s generally good for us,” Mr. Hampson said. But if they go deep under Mr. Trump, it will have a domino effect on us, on top of the tariffs. »
International relations
The election outcome could also redefine the United States’ role in the world.
Mr. Trump has often criticized aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, attacked the United Nations and repeatedly said he would not defend NATO members who fail to meet the defense spending targets — something Canada is not doing and will not do for several years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to achieve the goal of spending the equivalent of 2% of GDP on defense by 2032.
During his first term as president, Mr. Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Professor Hampson, the Republicans’ push against international institutions and treaties will have “a profound impact” on Canada, but also on its main allies and on the world order itself.
Si Mme Harris wins, the general expectation is that relations will be more normal, following established patterns, but that doesn’t necessarily mean everything will go well for Canada.
The vice-president is expected to follow the path set by President Joe Biden on foreign policy and trade with Canada.
Mr. Biden signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transported oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The Biden administration’s “Buy America” procurement rules have also raised concerns in Canada.
Laura Dawson, who is an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, expects a Harris administration to pursue nationalist and protectionist policies.
Mme Harris recalled on the campaign trail that she voted against the trilateral trade deal with Canada and Mexico when she was a senator. She also promised to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
It’s an excellent campaign speech, according to Mme Dawson, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada.”
During a cabinet retreat in August, Mme Dawson also warned Mr. Trudeau’s team that, no matter who the next president is, Canada will have to work harder to maintain its advantages.
Voters at odds
Meanwhile, many Americans are caught between anxiety and excitement.
Gavin Kupcho, who is 16, attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin last week.
“I’ve never been so excited in my life,” he said. I need gas prices to go down since I just got my license. »
Antonio White, who traveled to Milwaukee from Miami to knock on doors for Mme Harris seems more nervous.
The 63-year-old said the United States is at a tipping point, “where people no longer recognize fascism when they see it.”
“This is an election that we have to win for the sanctity of everyone, for the country itself,” he said.
“It’s democracy that’s on the ballot this time.” »
