More than two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion, Ukraine is retreating on the battlefield, particularly on the eastern front of Donbass where almost every day Moscow announces the capture of a village. Volodymyr Zelensky is expected in Brussels on Thursday. Not at the Alliance headquarters but a few kilometers away, in the city center, where he is invited to a summit with the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union. After having defended his plan in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and Rome, he revealed its broad outlines in front of Parliament in kyiv on Wednesday.
“Irreversible”. Lifting restrictions on the use of weapons that the West supplies to Ukraine, deployment on Ukrainian territory of non-nuclear deterrent weapons… None of these requests has yet met with support from the Allies , who meet at ministerial level for two days in the Belgian capital. The plan presented by Mr. Zelensky also recommends immediately sending kyiv an invitation to join NATO, the only real guarantee of security for his country, according to the Ukrainian president. But here again, you will have to be patient. On Wednesday, Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of the Alliance, limited himself to recalling the “irreversible” nature of Ukraine’s path towards NATO.
The United States, where the presidential election will take place on November 5, is refusing for the moment to go further. “We are not at the point where the Alliance is discussing launching a short-term invitation,” confirmed the American ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, on Wednesday. But the Ukrainian plan will be “on the table” of the meeting on Thursday evening, confirmed Mark Rutte. “It constitutes, of course, a strong signal from Mr. Zelensky and his team,” he continued. But “this does not mean that I can say here that I support the whole plan,” he tempered. Several countries are cautious, fearing an escalation with Russia or, more prosaically, for budgetary reasons.
At NATO the official line remains the same, including since the arrival of Mark Rutte at the beginning of the month. “We are working very hard to make sure that they (the Ukrainians) win,” he promised to the press on Wednesday. But “there are several ways to define victory or to define defeat,” argues an Atlantic Alliance official. For some of the 32 countries of this organization, Russia’s setbacks at the start of its “special operation” in 2022 are already a victory in themselves, authorizing a compromise, preferable to a long and costly war, explains another diplomat from the NATO.
Meeting canceled. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also called on Wednesday to “do everything” to prevent the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, including by discussing with Russian President Vladimir Putin, however in consultation with kyiv. Day after day, Russian forces shell the cities and energy infrastructure of Ukraine, which insists on more anti-aircraft defense systems. In this context, expectations were high before a meeting planned last Saturday of the Ramstein group – the States helping Ukraine – in which Joe Biden was to participate, to relaunch the support of the Allies for this country. But the meeting was canceled.
The American president, however, announced to Mr. Zelensky during a telephone conversation on Wednesday new military aid from the United States to kyiv valued at $425 million and which notably includes “additional air defense capabilities.” However, uncertainty remains total regarding the continuation of American aid in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, and all eyes are on Washington before the election. “We are a bit in waiting mode,” summarizes a NATO diplomat.
Olivier BAUBE
© Agence France-Presse
