In a press release sent at the end of November to L'Éveil de la Haute-Loire, Medef 43 warned the government against the temptation to increase taxes and charges on businesses, in the hope of achieving 20 billion euros in savings. savings. For what ?
Stéphane Vray : Initially, the draft budget presented by the Barnier government provided for 40 billion euros in savings, including 20 billion borne by businesses, between increases in corporate taxes and reductions in tax reductions and aid. Medef calculated that 20 billion euros in taxes and additional charges meant 400,000 jobs disappeared… We believe in the supply-side policy which was initiated in 2012 (by President François Hollande, which had then granted 20 billion euros in tax cuts to businesses, editor's note). We do not think that the reductions in charges are gifts given to companies, given the cost of labor…
Jérôme Chalaye : You should know that the French business world is the most taxed in the OECD (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has 38 member countries, Editor's note) and even in the world. We have stratospheric labor costs, which penalizes the competitiveness of businesses. In this complex period, we are rather waiting for tax reductions and not for them to be called into question. Especially since the economic situation is such that we have a glaring lack of business for almost all sectors. This results in a drop in turnover which, associated with very high labor costs, gives rise to a cascade of bankruptcy filings, confirmed by the commercial court, whether in Haute-Loire or elsewhere.
Exactly, what about in Haute-Loire?
Stéphane Vray : We observe today, even at home, that there is less difficulty in recruiting than yesterday, this reflects a drop in activity.
Jérôme Chalaye : The situation was reversed in a short time. A year ago, I would have told you that it was complicated to find CVs, which blocked us from hoping for growth. Today, we have a decline in terms of business volume, on the other hand, we find more CVs. We are at a crossroads. Companies are failing. Their order books are decreasing, due to the context. Inevitably behind this, we have job cuts (Auchan, Valéo, etc.). The temporary employment sector is strongly affected. However, it is the first lever of action for a company.
Who are these companies in difficulty?
Stéphane Vray : We have to be discreet. But generally speaking, visibility, even in the industry, is not good. We are a packaging department. When consumption falls, we pack less… However, we have paradoxical situations: for the construction sector, it is very complicated. Conversely, the forecasts of certain business leaders are good for 2025.
Jérôme Chalaye : It's quite disparate. Sectors linked to public procurement, such as Public Works, maintain a consistent level of activity, thanks to numerous calls for tenders in the department. On the other hand, leaving this register, there are many areas where the situation is complicated, with double-digit drops in turnover: -10, -15 and even -20%. We are lucky to be in Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, a very dynamic region, the first in France in terms of business creation. The community supports them enormously, it's an opportunity that not everyone has. The fact remains that there are business failures, a little less in Haute-Loire than elsewhere.
What is the primary cause of this drop in activity also observed in Haute-Loire?
Jérôme Chalaye : A loss of household confidence in the political world. It is complicated for Frenchman X or Y to rely on the debates in the hemicycle. We have highlighted the dysfunctions and mismanagement of our leaders, who have continued to increase the debt abysmally. During this period, we say stop! The business world can no longer finance this constantly increasing debt. Brussels asked for a deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP, we will arrive at 6%, the course of action is not held by the State. Whatever its political side, the government must be manager. “We just have to,” no one can hear it anymore.
Key figures
54.000. Haute-Loire, a “department with a strong industrial vocation”, has 54,000 employees in the private sector.
550. In 2023, the Medef (French business movement) of Haute-Loire had 550 members, “compared to 150 15 years ago”. The majority of them (69%) “have fewer than 20 employees”.
38. The number of meetings organized by Medef 43, in 2023.
What remedy(s) are there for the crisis?
Stéphane Vray : The president of Medef, Patrick Martin, had put forward the idea of a measure, certainly not very popular, of social VAT. An increase of one point could bring in 10 billion euros and help lower labor costs. It's not just for the business manager, it's also reductions in charges for employees, so that their net income increases. A company's greatest asset is its employees.
The Barnier government was censored on December 4. Are you hopeful that the Finance Bill will be more favorable to the entrepreneurial world?
Stéphane Vray : Before being censored, the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, had revised his copy. It was not ideal, but there had been fairly fundamental progress, notably a smaller reduction in relief, the maintenance of aid for work-study students, etc. Our national president, Patrick Martin, has condemned the censorship. We wanted the Finance Bill to be adopted. Censorship is not a good thing. We don't applaud with both hands, not at all!
Jérôme Chalaye : The business world needs stability and certainty. He needs to be listened to.
Are the prospects better for 2025 in Haute-Loire?
Stéphane Vray : We are coming out of an Aura Comex (executive committee), during which it was said that for design offices, plastics processing, transport, chemistry, etc., it was going to be complicated. No branch rejoiced around the table. And this is only the beginning… We remain vigilant!
