This year of votes was particularly difficult for the authorities. Since 2000, never before have so many of their projects been rejected by popular vote.
In 2024, four out of six projects from federal authorities have been refused. Again on Sunday, the people said no to three of their four proposals: the motorway widenings and the two rental law reforms failed at the ballot box. Already in September, the people said no to the revision of the second pillar of retirement provision.
>> A look back at Sunday’s voting day: The Swiss people reject the widening of motorways and the objects on lease law, but accept the EFAS reform
In total, 67% of the proposals from Parliament and the Federal Council were rejected this year. This figure does not include popular initiatives. Usually, the failure rate is around 30%.
The year 2024 is therefore an exceptionally bad vintage for the federal authorities. You have to go back to 2004 to find such a mediocre year. The people then refused seven proposals at the ballot box.
And 20 years apart, we find similarities in the subjects covered: motorways, tenancy law and even old age provision. Another Parliament, another Federal Council, but the same difficulties in convincing the people on these subjects.
Lack of confidence
The themes submitted to a vote partly explain this poor score. For example, the people have difficulty accepting pension reforms. However, this is not the only way of interpretation.
The gfs.bern polling institute measures a fall in public confidence in the government after the Covid crisis. And for the first time this month, the share of people distrustful of the government exceeded the share of people confident.
This change in the relationship between the people and the authorities can partly explain the trends in this voting campaign. While usually the projects of the Federal Council and Parliament gain supporters during the campaign, this time the opposite happened.
Seek compromise
Another avenue could explain this disavowal of the population. According to political scientist from the University of Lausanne Sean Müller, the divisions within Parliament itself are a reflection of popular opinion. Guest on the show Forum, he affirms that when we compare the percentage of support for a project from the National Council with the percentage of support from the people, “we see an alignment”.
“When it’s tight in Parliament, it’s also tight at the ballot boxes,” he notes. “On the contrary, when Parliament manages to make a compromise that includes a large majority, there is support.”
Increased polarization
Sean Müller observes a certain difficulty among certain parliamentarians in finding a compromise. “We are seeing greater polarization. The left and the right are becoming more radical,” he says. However, if the parties cannot agree, we should expect more reforms to be blocked in the coming years, he believes.
According to him, Parliament must listen to the needs of people who refused the reforms and then modify them. “We saw this with the CO2 law: it was refused, then reworked,” he underlines. “So Parliament must show that it is capable of learning, listening and modifying projects to pass them.”
>> Read also: Switzerland is holding its new CO2 law for the period 2025-2030
>> See the interview with Sean Müller:
Philéas Authier/edel
