2024 Legislative Elections: In Paris, Macron’s Party Loses Ground to the Left

How far away the Macronist wave of 2017 seems in Paris. At the time, Emmanuel Macron won 46% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election and, in the process, 13 of the 18 constituencies in the capital fell into his hands. The head of state, who was still leaning on his left leg, then siphoned off the historic socialist vote. Alas, seven years later, it was a rainbow tidal wave, in the colours of the New Popular Front (NFP), that swept away Macronism. While the left already had nine elected representatives in the first round, Ensemble could only hope to win in four to six constituencies. A stinging setback.

The former majority is only holding out in the upscale neighborhoods of central and western Paris. Entrepreneur Sylvain Maillard, president of the Renaissance group in the National Assembly, and researcher Benjamin Haddad still managed to improve their score, garnering 44.7 and 47.7% of the vote respectively in the two constituencies grouping the I^isII^eVIII^e arrondissements and part of the 16th^e. In the other part of the XVI^eEmmanuel Macron’s former advisor, Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, is also in a very favorable position, arriving far ahead of the candidates of the Republicans and the NFP. Same scenario for Olivia Grégoire, the Minister Delegate for SMEs, Trade and Tourism.

The situation is much less comfortable for David Amiel, a close friend of the head of state from the very beginning. Neck and neck with the environmentalist candidate, he should nevertheless benefit from a transfer of votes to the right. This could also be the case for the Modem candidate Maud Gatel in the eleventh constituency, which includes the north of the 14th^e district and part of the VI^e. Except that she starts with a nine-point deficit on her socialist rival Céline Hervieu. The current Minister of Transformation and Civil Service, Stanislas Guérini, is in an even worse position, twelve points behind his rebellious rival.

Finally, there remains the absurd case of the second constituency. On this bourgeois land, which includes the V^e district, part of the VI^e et du VII^eFrançois Fillon had triumphed in 2012 before Macron’s party dominated the following debates. But this year, the majority presented itself divided. The incumbent Gilles Le Gendre learned, at the last moment, that he would not benefit from the investiture because of his criticisms of the strategy of the head of state. Ensemble preferred to nominate Jean Laussucq, a close friend of the Minister of Culture, Rachida Dati, who had not hesitated to accuse Le Gendre of sexual and moral harassment in 2022, when she was still in the opposition. The Macronist dissident still gathered 19.6% of voters, just behind Laussucq, at 23.6%. The socialist Marine Rosset, who was capped at 6% in 2017, suddenly came out on top, with 33.4% of the vote. She is heading for victory if the two men do not find common ground.

This psychodrama symbolizes the failure of Macron’s party against a left led by the rebels, who are doing well in eastern Paris, which includes a significant portion of social housing. Five of the nine elected in the first round come from their ranks. Controversial figures, such as Sophia Chikirou, who recently compared the communist Fabien Roussel to the collaborationist Jacques Doriot, or Danièle Obono, who described Hamas as a “resistance movement”, obtained impressive scores of 58.2 and 64.2% respectively. The environmentalists Sandrine Rousseau and Éva Sas, who had to go through a second round in 2022, were also elected in the first round.

Two defeats of the former majority also hurt in the run-up to the 2026 municipal elections. While they were neck and neck two years ago, the rebellious Aymeric Caron crushed Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a close friend of Edouard Philippe, a declared candidate for mayor of Paris. Similarly, the socialist Emmanuel Grégoire, Anne Hidalgo’s first deputy, was elected in the first round with an eighteen-point lead over Clément Beaune. The former Minister of Transport, who had great ambitions for 2026, is one of the pillars of Territoires de progrès, the party founded by former socialists Olivier Dussopt and Jean-Yves Le Drian. He embodies more than ever the rout of the left wing of Macron’s party, largely neglected by the head of state, who preferred above all to hunt on the lands of the right. A strategy that he is paying for today in the Parisian ballot boxes.