The upheaval in relations between the political blocs is unprecedented in the department where, despite good resistance from the left, the RN is in a position to win at least two constituencies if the Republican alliance built around the right and the presidential majority confirms, by Tuesday, the retention of its candidates.
This is certainly not a surprise, but it is obviously an earthquake. Since last night, the prospect of seeing Haute-Vienne represented by at least one, or even several far-right deputies at the Palais-Bourbon, is no longer a political fiction scenario.
Reading the results of this historic first round, the National Rally is indeed in a position to win at least two out of three constituencies, if the “republican alternative” built around the right and the presidential majority confirms, by Tuesday, the retention of its candidates.
Only the first constituency, solid left-wing ground (at least, that’s what we thought until now) seems to be holding out. With 36.94% of the vote, the outgoing MP Damien Maudet (New Popular Front/LFI) is ahead of the RN candidate Camille Dos Santos de Oliveira by 2,367 votes. But the probable continuation in the second round of Isabelle Négrier (26.99%), representative of the presidential majority, could confuse the cards of a vote that is far from being a foregone conclusion.
The RN in the lead… by 19 votes in the 2nd constituency
On the 2nd constituencythe situation is a little different. In this south-western sector of the department, only 19 votes separate the RN candidate Sabrina Minguet (36.86% of the votes) from the outgoing NFP deputy, the socialist Stéphane Delautrette (36.83%).
Here, the left has doubled its score compared to the 2024 European elections. But the far right has done the same, also smashing its record from the 2022 legislative elections by winning 15,295 additional votes where Stéphane Delautrette won “only” 7,139.
The spectacular increase in participation (73.89%) therefore benefited everyone… including the centrist candidate Marie-Eve Tayot (24%), endorsed by the right and local Macronists, and who seemed determined, yesterday evening, to also remain in the second round.
84 votes ahead for the left in the 3rd
As for the 3rd constituency, Manon Meunier comes out on top, but only just: the outgoing NFP/LFI MP is only 84 votes ahead of her far-right rival, RN candidate Albin Freychet. In two years, the latter gained 11,000 votes where the outgoing MP, certainly also in progress, garnered “only” 6,415 additional votes. And the probable continuation of Gilles Toulza in the name of the Republican alternative could confuse voters a little more…
A political and moral risk
Because one of the keys to the second round is clearly in this centre-right alliance, while overall, the left came first in the department with 36.3% of the votes against 34.97% for the RN.
By repeating this Sunday evening, through the voice of Guillaume Guérin, the president of the Republicans in Haute-Vienne, that his candidates would not withdraw, the local right is taking a political risk, that of seeing his party sink into problematic electoral results.
But it also and above all takes a moral risk, by depriving the best placed adversaries of the RN of this famous “republican barrier” which it had nevertheless so widely called for when it came, in the past, to ensure the election of Jacques Chirac or, more recently, those of Emmanuel Macron.
Florence Clavaud-Parant
